The results of the U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, were met with heavy apprehension in Tehran and among its proxies. The Ayatollah regime feels threatened by the possibility that the newly elected president, Donald Trump, will stand firmly with Israel and increase pressure on Iran, mainly regarding an updated nuclear agreement. The concern is that Iran’s refusal to comply could lead the White House to legitimize an Israeli strike on Iran, thereby eliminating its strategic threat to Israel and the broader Middle East.
The immediate consequences of Trump’s election include restraining Iran’s response to the Israeli strike on the night of October 26, which came in retaliation for an Iranian attack on October 1.
The Israeli strike, named “Days of Repentance,” was historic as it marked the first time Israel officially claimed responsibility for a strike on Iran. The justification for the operation was Iran’s launch of 181 ballistic missiles targeting various sites in Israel on October 1, 2024. The Israeli retaliation severely damaged Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure and destroyed a significant portion of its air defense system.
During Trump’s first term as president, he decided in 2018 to withdraw from the nuclear deal signed between world powers and Iran three years earlier, during Obama’s presidency. Two years after the U.S. withdrawal, in a policy dubbed “maximum pressure,” Trump ordered the targeted killing of Qasem Soleimani at Baghdad airport. Soleimani was the commander of the Iranian Quds Force, responsible for establishing the Shiite axis in the region.
These actions aimed to force Iran to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons and cease its training and funding of terrorist organizations in the Middle East. The re-imposition of U.S. sanctions against Tehran in 2018 crippled its oil production, slashed its revenues, led to cuts in public services, significantly reduced citizens’ living standards, and skyrocketed the regime’s budget deficits.
Notably, recent reports from American media, citing sources who worked with Trump, suggest that his second term, starting January 20, 2025, might be influenced by intelligence that Iranian agents attempted to assassinate him in September 2024, motivated by a desire to avenge Soleimani’s death.
Iran has downplayed the damage caused to its military infrastructure by the Israeli strike on October 26, claiming that the IDF’s statements about severe damages were mere psychological warfare. Iranian media reported that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei instructed Tehran’s National Security Council to prepare for an attack on Israel and identified dozens of Israeli targets for potential strikes.
Iran’s Miscalculation
The significant blows delivered by Israel to the “Resistance Axis,” led by Iran, have caused damage of varying severity to its components. These actions exposed their vulnerabilities and weaknesses, highlighting the clear military superiority of the IDF and the vital role of Israel’s intelligence and counterterrorism forces.
In recent years, Iran has persistently worked to encircle Israel with a network of extremist Islamist terrorist organizations operating under its guidance and receiving consistent military and financial support. It armed and financed Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and Islamic Jihad groups in other countries. The goal was to establish these proxies as a constant threat to Israel, capable of launching coordinated offensive actions in a war scenario. Iran sought to increase pressure on Israel and deter it from initiating military actions, especially those hindering Iran’s progress toward military nuclear capability. A central tenet of Iran’s strategy is the public and repeated declaration by its leaders of their intent to destroy Israel.
In recent months, Israel delivered a series of painful blows to Iran’s proxies in the region, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon. This was evident in targeted strikes on military sites, communications equipment, and senior organization officials. Most notably, on September 27, 2024, in the Dahiya district of Beirut, Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. This dramatic, surprising event had the immediate potential to weaken and destabilize the “Resistance Axis.”
Iran appeared stunned by Nasrallah’s elimination, and in the interval between the assassination and its subsequent missile attack on Israel, Tehran’s leadership seemed paralyzed. It is likely that during this period, Iran’s leadership held intense deliberations to decide on an appropriate response to Israel.
According to reports in American media, such as The New York Times, divisions within Iran’s leadership were evident regarding how to respond to Israel. Hardliners advocated for an immediate military strike to deter Israel, while moderates argued for restraint given the current circumstances. Regardless, Israel assessed that an Iranian response was inevitable, with the only uncertainty being timing.
Hamas Has Suffered But Remains Unvanquished
In its ongoing campaign against Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Israel has achieved significant successes. Hamas has suffered severe blows, yet to be thoroughly defeated. At present, 101 Israeli hostages remain in Hamas’ hands. While Hamas continues to function as a fighting force, it now operates more like a guerrilla unit, lacking centralized command. Notably, Hamas reclaims areas vacated by the IDF.
The targeted killing of Yahya Sinwar, the newly appointed head of Hamas’ political bureau following Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination, may prove to be a significant milestone in the long road toward decisively defeating Hamas. Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly emphasized “absolute victory” as a key war objective.
Recent IDF operations against Hamas include targeted killings of senior figures like Salah Al-Arouri (January 2, 2024), Mohammed Deif (July 13, 2024), and Ismail Haniyeh (July 31, 2024).
Palestinian terrorist cells in the West Bank also pose threats, supported by Iranian arms and funding or acting independently as “lone wolves” without formal organizational ties.
Among the “Resistance Axis” components, the Houthis in Yemen have emerged as a notable threat. Officially known as “Ansar Allah,” this Shiite-Zaydi terrorist organization controls the Bab-el-Mandeb straits, strategically significant for international maritime trade and Israel. In the past year, the Houthis launched ballistic missiles and drones at Israel and its shipping routes, prompting Israeli airstrikes on Yemeni targets, including infrastructure and strategic installations in Hudaydah.
Internally, Iran faces challenges from minority populations, particularly in regions like Ahwaz, where Arab separatists resist Tehran’s rule. Despite being a critical source of Iran’s natural resources and revenue, the Arab residents of Ahwaz face systemic discrimination, repression, and poverty.
Shiites in Saudi Arabia and Arabs in Iran
The population in Islamic countries is not homogeneous, complicating efforts to address the “Axis of Evil.” For example, while Saudi Arabia is a staunch opponent of Iran, it is home to a Shiite minority in its northeastern region. Currently, this group does not pose an active or significant threat to the central government in Riyadh, but the kingdom must continuously monitor potential dissent.
Conversely, the Ahwaz region in Iran, known by Arabs as ” Arabistan,” presents a significant security challenge. This vast area, covering 375,000 square kilometers—equivalent to the combined size of Jordan, Syria, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar—is home to approximately two million Arabs. Strategically vital for Iran, it lies on the eastern shore of the Persian Gulf and contains rich oil and gas fields and fertile agricultural lands, contributing 90% of Iran’s revenues.
The Arab population in Ahwaz has long faced persecution by Tehran, including efforts to erase their Arab identity. Arabic language use is banned, and city names have been changed from Arabic to Persian. Periodic protests demand recognition as a national minority and fundamental human rights, which the regime suppresses through starvation and even cutting off drinking water supplies.
Numerous Ahwazi liberation movements, differing in size, ideology, and political orientation, have increased their activity in recent years. These include the Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahwaz, the Arab Front for the Liberation of Ahwaz, the Arab Renaissance Movement for the Liberation of Ahwaz, and several others.
In Conclusion, A Wounded Iran Faces Challenges at Home and Abroad
Iran’s attempt to unite its proxies against Israel under the concept of “unity of fronts” has faltered in the past year due to Israel’s determined counterattacks. The campaign against Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, operations against Palestinian terror cells in the West Bank, expanded actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon, airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, and strikes on Iranian military infrastructure have all contributed to diminishing Iran’s regional influence.
Adding to these external pressures is the separatist sentiment in Ahwaz, a vital region for Iran’s economy. Home to an oppressed Arab population, it seeks autonomy and poses an ongoing challenge to Tehran’s authority.
