On October 8, the day after Hamas’s massacre in the Israeli communities surrounding Gaza, Hezbollah joined the conflict in response to the launch of Israel’s “Iron Swords” operation. Hezbollah’s campaign against Israel was termed by its Secretary-General as the “Campaign of Support for Gaza” (Harb Isnad Gaza) and aimed to assist Hamas by tying down large Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) units along the northern border and pressuring Israel to end its campaign in Gaza by displacing tens of thousands of north Israeli residents from their homes.
Since the Second Lebanon War ended, Hezbollah focused on rebuilding and enhancing its military capabilities. According to estimates by the IDF and Israeli defense officials, the organization amassed over 100,000 missiles, trained tens of thousands of well-prepared fighters, and established a military force comparable to that of a nation-state. Following the Second Lebanon War, Nasrallah declared that in the next conflict with Israel, there would be no red lines. Consequently, Hezbollah formulated plans for such a confrontation, primarily involving massive rocket attacks on Tel Aviv and Dimona, as well as other strategic targets within Israel, including defense factories.
In the current war, Hezbollah sought to assist Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, by firing at Israel and demonstrating to the Arab world and its Iranian patrons that it was defending the Palestinian people under the banner of the unity of fronts. Since October 8, Hezbollah has repeatedly emphasized that a cessation of the war in Gaza is a precondition for any settlement in Lebanon.
Additionally, Hezbollah worked to recruit other terrorist organizations to join the campaign against Israel. In this context, Nasrallah often mentioned the unity of fronts and praised Iraqi militias and the Houthis in Yemen for their ballistic missile and drone attacks, which continue at the time of writing. Hezbollah had a clear interest in preventing northern Israeli residents from returning to their homes, with Nasrallah boasting in every speech that he would maintain this stance as long as the fighting in Gaza persisted.
One of Hezbollah’s plans, according to Israeli security sources, was a surprise attack called “Conquering the Galilee.” The objectives included an invasion of Israeli territory by dozens or hundreds of fighters through tunnels or motorcycles, the seizure of towns, mass killings, kidnappings of civilians, and the raising of the Hezbollah flag within Israel, inspired by the October 7 massacre.
A Severe Blow to the Leadership
From October 8 until the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel brokered by the United States, the IDF fought against Hezbollah operatives and commanders in the field, targeting mid-level commanders, weapon depots, launchers, and even the organization’s economic institutions. These actions gradually dealt a severe blow to Hezbollah’s functionality.
In response to continuous rocket fire, drone launches, and anti-tank missile strikes from Lebanon since the war began, Israel recalculated its course. On July 30, Israel escalated its efforts with the significant assassination of Fuad Shukur, Hezbollah’s “chief of staff.” The organization planned a large-scale retaliatory attack on August 25, but the IDF thwarted it, destroying hundreds of launchers and thousands of missiles aimed at Israel.
Subsequently, according to foreign reports, Israel inflicted a painful blow on Hezbollah between September 17 and 18 with the “Beepers Operation.” Dozens of operatives were killed, and over 3,000 were injured, including Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, who lost an eye and a finger. Nasrallah admitted in his speeches that Hezbollah suffered a painful blow, requiring two weeks to recover.
Israel continued targeting Hezbollah’s leadership and jihad council members. On September 20, in an operation dubbed “Northern Arrows,” Israeli Air Force fighter jets destroyed a building hosting a senior-level meeting and killed Ibrahim Akel, the architect of the “Conquering the Galilee” plan, along with dozens of high-ranking commanders. The climax came on September 27, when the Israeli Air Force attacked Hezbollah’s headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut, killing Nasrallah and other senior figures.
After Nasrallah’s assassination, Hashim Safi al-Din, head of Hezbollah’s military council and wanted by the United States for terrorism, was named as a potential successor. However, on October 4, Israel successfully eliminated him in an airstrike on his hideout in Beirut. Following the assassination of the intended heir, Naim Qassem, Nasrallah’s deputy, was chosen as the organization’s new Secretary-General.
Licking Their Wounds Towards an Agreement
On September 30, a limited ground maneuver into southern Lebanon began. Gradually, the IDF entered several villages considered Hezbollah strongholds, such as Al-Khiam. There, and in other nearby areas, the IDF discovered dozens of weapon caches in tunnels and large quantities of Iranian-made arms, including missiles, hidden in civilian homes. This thwarted the “Conquering the Galilee” plan that Nasrallah had threatened Israel with.
The ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel was signed and came into effect on November 27. The agreement ended the intense year-long war during which Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets, missiles, and drones at Israel, causing casualties among both civilians and soldiers. In return, Israel inflicted heavy damage on Lebanon—large parts of southern Lebanon were utterly destroyed, hundreds of buildings in Beirut were damaged, and dozens of structures in the south of suburbs were leveled, primarily through targeted assassinations. According to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health, since October 8, over 4,000 civilians were killed, 16,000 injured, and more than one million refugees fled southern Lebanon to other parts of the country.
As Part of the Ceasefire Agreement, 13 Clauses Were Formulated:
- A complete cessation of offensive actions by Hezbollah and all other armed groups operating within Lebanon.
- Israel will not undertake any military offensive actions against targets in Lebanon, whether on land, in the air, or at sea.
- Israel and Lebanon acknowledge the importance of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
- The commitments mentioned above do not preclude the right of Israel and Lebanon to exercise their right to self-defense.
- The Lebanese security forces and army will be the only armed entities permitted to carry weapons or operate troops in southern Lebanon.
- The Lebanese government will supervise and control all sales, supplies, and production of weapons and munitions for Lebanon.
- All unauthorized facilities for the production of weapons and related materials will be dismantled.
- All military infrastructure and bases will be dismantled, and all weapons inconsistent with these commitments will be confiscated.
- A joint committee acceptable to Israel and Lebanon will be established to oversee and assist in enforcing these commitments.
- Israel and Lebanon will report any anticipated violations of these commitments to the committee and UNIFIL forces.
- Lebanon will deploy its official security forces and army along all borders, checkpoints, and the southern Lebanese line.
- Israel will gradually withdraw from the south of the Blue Line within 60 days.
- The U.S. will facilitate indirect negotiations between Israel and Lebanon to agree on a defined land border.
Ceasefire: Concessions and Humiliations
Several factors contributed to the ceasefire and the cancellation of Hezbollah’s primary demand to link the Lebanese front with the Gaza campaign (the “unity of fronts”). These included the elimination of Hezbollah’s leadership, which weakened the organization; the occupation of southern Lebanon, which ended the “Conquering the Galilee” plan; the extensive destruction of south Lebanon and parts of Beirut’s Dahiya suburbs; and growing criticism from the Lebanese (especially Christians) toward Hezbollah for its responsibility for the devastation. These pressures forced the new Secretary-General to compromise and agree to the ceasefire. However, in his speeches, he consistently claimed that Hezbollah had won the campaign and that this victory was even greater than that of 2006, according to his narrative.
Undoubtedly, Hezbollah emerged from the prolonged campaign, humiliated and defeated. Firstly, the organization was forced to separate the fronts and cease its attacks on Israel, effectively abandoning its condition that the northern war would not end until the IDF withdrew from Gaza. Additionally, Hezbollah agreed to a 60-day Israeli presence in southern Lebanon, drawing widespread criticism from bloggers, journalists, and politicians across the Arab world. The most significant evidence of Hezbollah’s weakened position is its abandonment of its demand for the release of its prisoners held by Israel, failing even to obtain information about them.
The sentiment in Lebanon focuses on Hezbollah’s failure and the need to disarm the organization. For Lebanese citizens from various sects, the terrorist group has outlived its purpose, failed to fulfill its mission, and must now relinquish its weapons to the Lebanese army. It is important to note that Hezbollah’s raison d’être has always been the struggle against Israel and the prevention of its occupation or attacks on Lebanon. Yet now, the organization has effectively allowed such actions, enabling Israel to operate within Lebanon’s borders and force thousands to evacuate their homes due to plans to destroy them after discovering weapon caches or headquarters hidden within.
The fear barrier surrounding Hezbollah in Lebanon appears to have been broken. Many citizens now openly criticize the organization, arguing that it dragged Lebanon into a war that had nothing to do with it in the first place.
The Israeli Perspective: The Lesser Evil
From Israel’s perspective, this agreement is far from ideal in ensuring peace and security along the northern border. The deal includes no commitment to establish a security zone to protect residents of border communities, which is why many of the evacuees have not yet returned home. Hezbollah claims this as a victory, attempting to present it to its audience as a significant achievement from the war.
According to the ceasefire agreement, the Lebanese army is supposed to replace Hezbollah at conflict points and along the border with Israel. However, it is worth noting that most Lebanese army soldiers are Shia Muslims, often from low socioeconomic backgrounds—the same backgrounds from which many Hezbollah fighters emerged. Essentially, the Lebanese army and Hezbollah are part of the same “family.” In other words, the Lebanese military is unlikely to fight against Hezbollah.
This raises questions about whether the Lebanese army can genuinely protect Israel’s border from Hezbollah fighters. Moreover, Israel had previously experienced attacks carried out by soldiers from neighboring countries’ armies, such as in 1997, when a Jordanian soldier killed seven Israeli schoolgirls at Naharayim, or in June 2023, when an Egyptian soldier killed three IDF soldiers near the border fence with Egypt. This highlights that a security zone would be far more effective than deploying Lebanese army forces.
Seeking New Bargaining Chips
The ceasefire remains fragile and is unlikely to hold for long. As mentioned earlier, both sides view the agreement as far from ideal. This is evident in mutual violations within the first days after its signing. Israel claimed its right to fight against Hezbollah under the agreement. At the same time, Hezbollah accused Israel of over 60 violations during the first week alone, primarily involving Israeli drones and aircraft flying over Lebanon, which Lebanon claims is a breach of the agreement.
Regardless, Hezbollah and Lebanon are now focused on clearing the extensive war damage and rebuilding. The organization has not recovered since the “Northern Arrows” operation, emerging humiliated and with diminished public support. For instance, after two years of obstructing presidential elections, Hezbollah suddenly agreed to hold elections on January 9.
Hezbollah faces significant internal challenges in the foreseeable future. For now, the organization will concentrate on addressing the plight of displaced Lebanese citizens, including compensation plans for those returning to their homes and rent payments for those who lost theirs—primarily funded by Iran. Meanwhile, the organization is conducting funerals for many fighters who could not be adequately buried during the fighting. Plans are underway for large-scale funerals for Nasrallah and Safi al-Din, events that the current leadership intends to use to project an image of business as usual—not necessarily toward Israel but toward internal rivals, including Christians and others calling for the group’s disarmament.
Israel’s temporary presence in southern Lebanon and the lack of a framework for releasing Hezbollah prisoners held by Israel increase the likelihood of military actions against IDF soldiers in Lebanon, including kidnappings aimed at gaining bargaining chips. Such an attempt, successful or not, could reignite the region into conflict. Hezbollah, humiliated and defeated, may resort to any measure to reclaim even a fraction of the honor lost in this war.
