On October 26, 2024, we will mark 30 years since establishing relations with the Kingdom of Jordan. The peace agreement signed with Jordan, also known as the “Arava Terminal Agreement”—named after the location where it was signed—regulated relations and ties with the Kingdom of Jordan in various fields: borders, exchange of ambassadors, security, the Temple Mount, and more. However, to this day, the majority of the Jordanian public views Israel as an enemy state and a pariah entity. Many Jordanians, most of whom are of Palestinian descent, oppose economic dealings with Israel, such as the water and gas purchase agreements signed in recent years between the two countries. Many Jordanians are even unwilling to continue maintaining the peace agreement with Israel, which is why peace with the kingdom increasingly resembles peace with Egypt—a cold peace. It is more of a security arrangement between the two states rather than an actual peace agreement, certainly not normalization, as many in Israel had hoped during the era of King Hussein. Nevertheless, the relationship with Israel is highly significant, as Jordan plays a crucial role as the custodian of the holy sites in Jerusalem and shares a long border with Israel, stretching approximately 300 kilometers.
Cold Functional Peace
Jordan, our eastern neighbor, is ruled by an absolute monarchy of the Hashemite dynasty. According to the law, the king has the final say. As in many Islamic states, the upper and lower houses of Parliament serve primarily as a façade. The 65 members of the Senate, the upper house, are personally appointed by the king for a four-year term. The lower house, the Chamber of Deputies, consists of 138 seats elected by the people every four years. Thus, the king is all-powerful in his country—he can dissolve both houses at his discretion, as has happened multiple times.
Jordan’s current king, Abdullah II, aged 62, is the son of Queen Muna. He inherited the throne from his father, King Hussein, upon his death in 1999. In the early years, his half-brother Hamzah, son of Queen Noor, was appointed Crown Prince. However, in 2004, Abdullah stripped him of the title and transferred it to his son, Hussein, named after his grandfather. In 2022, Hamzah attempted a coup against King Abdullah, ultimately failing.
The percentage of Palestinians residing in Jordan is a subject of debate among researchers. Some estimate around 40% of the kingdom’s 11 million residents, while others cite much higher figures—up to 80%. The king himself is married to Queen Rania, a Palestinian from Tulkarm. The presence of millions of Palestinians in the kingdom frequently poses a challenge to Jordan’s intelligence apparatus and the king himself. There is a constant concern in the kingdom that events similar to Black September in 1970—when Palestinian militias attempted a coup in Jordan and were crushed by King Hussein—could happen again at any moment.
Over the years, it has become evident that the peace between Israel and Jordan, like that with Egypt, has not led to normalization of relations but is primarily aimed at achieving security stability and, above all, securing American aid and benefits granted to these countries—including from Israel. In the Arab world, peace agreements are often seen as treaties between governments rather than the peoples, and in Israel, the term “cold peace” is commonly used. Despite the agreements, the surrounding nations do not seek diplomatic relations with Israel. There is no Jordanian tourism to Israel, and vice versa, it has significantly declined. Those who do not understand Arab mentality continue to be surprised by the statements of various Arab parliamentarians against Israel or by the fact that a country with which Israel has a peace treaty, like Egypt, consistently votes against Israel at the UN.
In recent years, the Jordanian king has acted against Israeli sovereignty on the Temple Mount and has even incited against Jewish presence there. Jordan provoked outrage among Israeli leaders and the public when, in October 2016, it initiated and supported UNESCO resolutions that defined the Temple Mount and the Western Wall Plaza as Islamic sites, effectively erasing the Jewish people’s connection to their holiest site.
The Trauma of the Arab Spring
More than anything, the Jordanian king seeks political stability. In other words, he does not want to see protests, demonstrations, or a second Arab Spring that could destabilize his rule. This is the main reason why Arab leaders publicly support the Palestinian cause—not out of love for the Palestinians, but as a means to keep them and their issue away from their borders. Arab leaders have suffered dramatically from the Palestinian issue, which has wreaked havoc on nearly every Arab country. In the eyes of the Arab world, the Jordanian king is perceived as one of the weakest Arab leaders militarily, economically, and politically.
And how does one rise above all this chaos and become popular? By attacking Israel and leveraging it to secure American protection for one’s regime. This is precisely what the king has been doing in recent years. He is not afraid of Israel, which is why he allows himself to criticize, initiate, incite, and act against it publicly. He has learned this formula from other Arab leaders: the more aggressively one condemns Israel, the more popular one becomes among their people.
This was evident on October 28, 2018, when the Jordanian king surprised Israel by unilaterally canceling one of the peace agreement’s clauses, terminating Israel’s lease of the “Island of Peace” enclave and the Tzofar enclave. Although the peace agreement granted him this right, this move effectively ended the dream of a warm peace with Jordan.
The Jordanian king plays a double game: public hostility toward Israel serves as a tool to maintain his popularity, yet behind the scenes, moderate relations are preserved—both to appease the U.S. administration and to ensure the supply of water and gas that Israel is obligated to provide under the peace agreement. The Jordanian king cannot afford to forgo the millions of cubic meters of water supplied to Jordan and to the hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees who have joined the population in recent years.
Security relations with Jordan over the past decade have been fraught with challenges. Jordanian terrorists have carried out attacks against Israelis, including attacks on embassy staff in Amman. Recently, a terror attack at the Allenby Border Crossing originated from Jordan. Numerous crises have arisen, particularly in response to Jewish visits to the Temple Mount and riots during Muslim holidays that inflame Jordanian anger—anger that peaked during the Gaza war, where Jordanians publicly supported Hamas’s most heinous crimes.
The Gas Agreement as a Metaphor
Negotiations leading to the signing of the famous gas agreement between Israel and Jordan began as early as 2011, and the contract itself was signed in September 2016 under U.S. mediation, following several delays. It faced opposition from many Jordanian parliament members and significant portions of the Jordanian public. In the following years, dozens of protests were held demanding the cancellation of the agreement, with the main argument being that business should not be conducted with “the Zionist enemy.” Despite the peace agreement and numerous ambassadorial exchanges, many in Jordan still perceive Israel as an enemy and, therefore, a party that should not be engaged with economically.
The key terms of the agreement, which continue to anger many in Jordan, involve the supply of natural gas from Israel’s Leviathan field to the Jordanian Electricity Company. The deal, valued at $10 billion, was signed for 15 years, covering a total volume of 45 billion cubic meters (BCM), with an option to increase the amount designated for Jordan’s electricity needs. The gas supply to Jordan was scheduled to commence at the beginning of 2020.
Over the years, Jordanians have protested against the gas agreement multiple times, and many parliament members have demanded its annulment. However, the king has not complied with these demands. The protests serve a propaganda purpose rather than a genuine intent to forgo the agreement’s benefits. The Jordanian government is acting rationally and is not rushing to cancel the deal, which is crucial for the kingdom’s needs. Moreover, according to the signed contract, canceling the agreement would obligate Jordan to pay a hefty financial penalty.
The Secret Jordanian Workers on the Temple Mount
According to Jordan’s Ministry of Religious Endowments and Islamic Affairs, which oversees mosque funding, the budget allocated for Al-Aqsa Mosque in 2014 was approximately $24 million. By 2023, the annual budget stood at around $20 million. The increase is attributed to additional funding directed by King Abdullah himself. This allocation, labeled as “steadfastness bonuses” for all workers, does not require much explanation—it is clear that it encourages disorder and non-compliance with Israeli police at the Temple Mount.
According to Jordan’s Ministry of Religious Endowments, 753 active employees are officially registered as workers at Al-Aqsa Mosque. Jordan attaches great importance to the mosque, and the king is referred to as the “Guardian of the Holy Places,” similar to the Saudi king, who is the “Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques”—Mecca and Medina. Additionally, the Jordanian king funds the restoration of both mosques and Christian churches in Jerusalem. This role brings the kingdom substantial donations from Gulf states, Arab nations, and Islamic countries. In other words, this is a net profit of tens of millions flowing into the kingdom’s coffers.
Anyone visiting the mosque can observe only a few dozen security personnel from the Jordanian Waqf—not hundreds or anywhere near the 750 officially listed employees. So where are all the others?
The question arises: Why is such a large number of “workers” needed, and why did Israel allow such a figure? Do Israeli security authorities know the identities of these “employees”? Are their incomes adequately reported to the tax authorities? How many have been arrested, and how many have been involved in disturbances or terrorism? These workers likely serve as a kind of mercenary force during times of crisis.
One cannot ignore the rapid and large-scale mobilizations that have taken place at the Temple Mount during various incidents in recent years—whether during Ramadan fasting, violent protests amid conflicts between Israel and Gaza, or during crises like the metal detector controversy (July 2017), the Golden Gate crisis (March 2019), and numerous other disturbances.
Additionally, a command and control center operates 24/7 inside Al-Aqsa Mosque, reporting to Jordan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and political officials in Jordan on all events occurring at the mosque, particularly during Jewish visits to the Temple Mount. This enables Jordan to automatically issue warnings and threats that Israel’s actions could lead to war if it permits Jewish access to the site.
However, if we closely examine the peace agreement signed between Israel and Jordan, we find that King Hussein and the Jordanians explicitly agreed to Jewish visits to the Temple Mount. Everything is conducted legally and by the peace treaty between Israel and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, signed on July 25, 1994. This agreement regulated diplomatic relations, borders, and resource distribution between the two countries.
Article 9, which addresses historically and religiously significant sites and interfaith relations, explicitly states in subsection 1: “Each party (Israeli or Jordanian) shall provide freedom of access to places of religious and historical significance.”
Thus, Jordan’s behavior contradicts the peace agreement and merely attempts to portray itself as a victim and extract political and financial gains from the Arab world.
The Double Game of the “Tomato King”
Despite Jordan’s outward hostility in the years leading up to the “Iron Swords” war, and despite the repeated condemnations by Jordan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding Israel’s actions in Gaza, Jordan has quietly continued to assist Israel. This includes helping circumvent the blockade imposed by the Houthis in the Red Sea and working to prevent terrorist infiltrations and disturbances from its eastern border into Israel. Unlike Turkey and other nations, Jordan did not impose an economic boycott on Israel and continued supplying goods.
One of the most notable products imported from Jordan recently has been tomatoes. Due to criticism within the Arab world over this continued trade, King Abdullah was mockingly given the title “The Tomato King” by Arab media.
From the very first days of the war in October 2023, Jordanian police suppressed dozens of protests near the border with Israel and prevented civilians from approaching it. Jordan also assisted the international coalition in intercepting Iranian missiles and drones that were fired at Israel during Iran’s large-scale attack on April 13, 2024.
Moreover, Jordan served as a transit station for goods arriving from Dubai, providing an alternative to the Red Sea route, which had become dangerous for Israeli ships due to Houthi activity. In return, Israel allowed the Jordanian king to airdrop food supplies into Gaza. Videos and images of these aid drops significantly bolstered the king’s prestige, mainly as Jordanian statements implied that the deliveries were made without Israeli approval.
These actions by the Jordanian king were primarily aimed at appeasing public opinion within his own country, which had become increasingly agitated over the war in Gaza. As mentioned, the king’s greatest nightmare is a repeat of Black September—a scenario in which the Palestinians attempt to seize control of Jordan through military force. He constantly fears internal unrest that could threaten his rule, which is why most of his anti-Israel rhetoric is intended to pacify his volatile population rather than reflect actual policy.
The Muslim Brotherhood: “For Women’s Rights”
From the past to the present, the Muslim Brotherhood and the Jordanian regime have engaged in a nonviolent struggle. In recent years, the Brotherhood has consistently boycotted elections. Their goal is not to overthrow the king but to implement governmental reforms to facilitate their electoral success. Therefore, their main focus in recent years has revolved around reforms and individual rights, particularly in the economy, education, women’s status, and personal freedoms.
The Muslim Brotherhood movement was founded in 1945 during King Abdullah I’s reign. Since then, it has become an integral part of Jordanian society. It is characterized by social engagement in various fields, such as charity work and hospital employment. Unlike its counterpart in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan has refrained from violence and terrorist attacks to maintain legitimacy and avoid confrontation with the king, which would lead to predictable consequences.
The movement gained widespread popularity and did not disrupt Jordanian society until 1989. That year, Jordan held its first elections since 1967, in which the Brotherhood achieved a resounding success, winning over a quarter of the parliamentary seats—22 out of 80. This electoral victory transformed the movement from an opposition force into a government participant. However, fearing a Brotherhood takeover of Parliament, the government swiftly enacted laws restricting their ability to gain further political power.
Jordan’s Containment of the Muslim Brotherhood
Since 1945, the Muslim Brotherhood had participated in elections as independents or as part of smaller parties. However 1992, a significant shift occurred with establishing the largest and most well-known political party associated with the Brotherhood—the Islamic Action Front (Ḥizb al-‘Amal al-Islāmī). In the first elections the party contested in 1993, it secured 22 parliamentary seats. While this party is an opposition force, it does not challenge the monarchy. Instead, it opposes the government and the laws it enacts, which the Brotherhood claims hinder their electoral prospects.
Due to political disagreements, the party has not always aligned with the government’s direction, as evidenced by its boycott of the 1997, 2010, and 2013 elections. However, in 2016, the party participated in the polls and won 15 seats. In recent years, the number of parliamentary seats in Jordan has gradually increased from 80 to 138. In the November 2020 parliamentary elections, the Islamic Action Front secured only 10 seats.
“Jihad Against the Zionist Enemy”
The parliamentary elections on September 10, 2024, marked the 19th elections in the kingdom. Eighty-eight parties participated, and voter turnout was relatively high compared to the 2020 elections, at 32%. The Islamic Action Front won 31 seats out of 138, an increase of over 300% from the previous election. A total of 463,000 people voted for the party.
Interestingly, one of the 31 elected party members is Christian, despite the party’s Islamic identity—a move designed to boost the party’s legitimacy among the Jordanian public. Many experts attribute this electoral success to the security situation in Gaza. The party’s hostility toward Israel is a dominant theme in its platform, with one of its key charter articles stating:
“Preparing the nation for jihad against its Zionist and colonialist enemies, working for the Palestinian cause within its Arab and Islamic framework, and striving to liberate Palestine from the oppressive Zionists.”
In the months leading up to the elections, party activists and candidates protested against the war in Gaza, organized rallies, and held conferences. They demonstrated near the Israeli embassy in Amman, voicing strong opposition to the war while expressing support for Hamas and its spokesman, Abu Ubaida. For months, their rhetoric focused solely on attacking Israel and championing the Palestinian cause. The party’s secretary-general is Wael Al-Sakka.
The Slippery Slope Challenge
Officially, Jordan is a close ally of both the United States and Israel. In 2014, in coordination with the U.S., Israel transferred 15 Apache helicopters to Jordan to aid in the fight against ISIS. Jordan serves as a strategic Arab state that supports Western interests, which is why U.S., British, and even French military bases can be found within its territory. These foreign troops primarily act as a protective force for the king—historically against ISIS and now against Iran and Shiite militias that could infiltrate via the Syrian border.
Jordan’s participation in thwarting the Iranian attack against Israel underscores the fact that, despite official rhetoric, the kingdom remains aligned with Israel. However, the fear of internal unrest exacerbates the tense atmosphere between the two nations. The “Iron Swords” war demonstrated that, in reality, King Abdullah II is not hostile toward Israel, yet he deliberately allows parliament members to attack Israel rhetorically.
Under the guise of protecting Jordan’s sovereignty against growing subversive threats, Jordan has actively prevented the infiltration of rioters into Israel, continued selling goods to Israel, served as a transit hub for shipments, and even intercepted drones en route to Israel. Hostility toward Israel is most visible in Jordanian media, parliamentary speeches, and Jordan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs statements. The king fully understands that he must maintain this double game for survival. Nonetheless, security coordination and agreements between Israel and Jordan remain intact and are managed without disruption.
At the same time, Jordanian society—indoctrinated by hostile media and inflammatory parliamentary rhetoric—has been significantly influenced by the prevailing anti-Israel sentiment. This was reflected in Jordan’s latest elections, where the Muslim Brotherhood party secured 31 seats, mainly due to its anti-Israel activism. The crucial question now is whether this party will eventually clash with the king over its opposition to normalization with Israel and existing agreements.
Judging by historical precedent, the Jordanian parliament has minimal power. The king remains the ultimate decision-maker and can dissolve parliament anytime and call for new elections. This reality compels Israel to remain vigilant, ensuring that Jordan’s public sentiment does not spiral into an outright attempt to overthrow the monarchy. This outcome could lead to a situation resembling the chaos of Lebanon or Syria.
