An essential lesson from recent history involves distinguishing between democracies and dictatorships. In democracies, data on trends and public opinion can be gleaned from elected representatives, as they were selected to express the will of the people. In dictatorships, however, direct engagement with the people is necessary because their so-called “representatives” don’t genuinely represent them. When dealing with unelected leaders, two main concerns emerge: establishing conditions to end the dictatorship and addressing immediate issues like ceasefires and comprehensive management. In the long run, relying on dictators is unwise. Democracies, at the very least, have a genuine interest in understanding the people’s will directly, as much as possible.
However, democracies often take advantage of dynamics within dictatorships to establish facts on the ground that align with their interests. For instance, Israel entered agreements with Jordan on behalf of the Palestinians residing there. Jordan’s Hashemite monarchy represents around one-fifth of the kingdom’s population, and many identify themselves as “Palestinians.” In September 1970, during “Black September,” Israel and the United States supported King Hussein in defeating the PLO, whose army constituted approximately a third of Jordan’s forces. With democratic support, thousands of Palestinians lost their lives in battles and extrajudicial killings, and tens of thousands were injured. Following their expulsion to Lebanon, Jordan stabilized, ensuring the continuity of the monarchy, albeit at the expense of Israel opening new fronts—primarily in Lebanon, effectively occupied by those expelled.
The course of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict might have taken a completely different turn if Israel and the U.S. had reached out to the monarchy. A conceivable solution could have involved pressuring Jordan to integrate the Palestinians, who were not a minority there. Unfortunately, the preference for immediate tranquility on the eastern border outweighed long-term considerations.
Have we learned anything from history?
The temporary resolution of Black September led to the dispersion of individuals identifying as “Palestinians” across Judea, Samaria, Lebanon, Tunisia, and other nations that agreed to host refugees from the crisis. In Jordan. Subsequently, proposed solutions have consistently followed a similar pattern – leveraging dictatorships to secure an advantage for the sole democracy in the Middle East. The Israeli government aimed to select Palestinian leadership, exert control in the West Bank and Gaza, and impose solutions in various regions that are aligned with Israeli interests. Once again, the “will of the people” is considered unimportant.
What did we want to find out in the survey?
The central line of questioning revolves around the identity of Arab individuals living in Judea and Samaria. What are their current aspirations? To what extent do Arab-Israelis perceive themselves as integral to the “Palestinians”? Do the “Arab-Israelis of 1948” also share their collective identity? Is there a shared identity between the refugees from Black September in Lebanon and Arab-Israelis? Do the “Palestinians” in Jordan, Gaza, Judea, Samaria, and Israel harbor unified national aspirations or distinct identities? Can we accurately assume that this is a dispersion of a singular people, akin to the Jewish people scattered worldwide, who, in their prayers, maintain the yearning for the gathering of exiles in their historical homeland?
These questions constitute part of the inquiry that the Eitan Center aims to analyze in order to formulate solutions that consider the current situation on the ground. The objective is to engage with individuals lacking a single elected leadership that accurately represents them.
Conducting the Survey – STATNET
The survey, conducted during the summer of 2023, utilized telephone interviews by the STATNET research institute, reaching out to a representative sample of 500 Arab adults in Judea and Samaria. STATNET is a distinctive research institute focused on Arab society in Israel and Palestinian society in the West Bank and Gaza. The institute is led by Yosef Maqleda, holding a master’s degree in statistics and a master’s degree in quality studies, and brings 15 years of experience in analysis and statistical consulting for prominent industry companies.
The raw results of the survey