Syria is the only country in the Middle East that survived the Arab Spring and the regional upheaval that swept through the region at the time. Starting in January 2011, millions of Syrians, enraged by government corruption, took to the streets demanding freedom and democracy. Initially, protests erupted from the south and spread nationwide, quickly escalating into an armed conflict and a prolonged civil war. The war exacted a heavy toll: estimates suggest up to a million deaths and millions of Syrian refugees migrating to Europe. Both the causes of the war and its consequences are complex, but it is essential to note that the war ended with Russian intervention and support from Iran and Hezbollah, enabling Assad’s regime to prevail and survive the uprising.
Syria, once stable under Bashar’s father, lost its stability. Today, the country faces unprecedented economic distress, widespread tension, and protests in nearly all regions: in the south among the Druze, in the north in areas occupied by Turkey, and among the Kurdish forces. Only the capital, Damascus, remains stable, thanks to strong security control and protection from Israeli attacks.
Syria is neither independent nor free. It hosts a significant foreign military presence, including troops from the United States, Russia, and Turkey, along with hundreds of Shiite, Kurdish, and Palestinian militias, some of which are in conflict with each other. Despite this, Bashar Assad tries to project an image of stability and democracy to gain Arab and international legitimacy.
Recently, on July 15, 2024, parliamentary elections were held in Syria. However, as in any Arab country, the parliament is merely a peripheral tool. The despotic leader – whether a king or president – determines all policies. The elections, held every four years in Syria, are intended only to provide a facade of democracy. In reality, all state affairs are managed by President Bashar Assad. In the latest elections, Assad’s Ba’ath Party won a sweeping majority of 169 out of 250 parliamentary seats. Out of nineteen million eligible voters, seven million elected their representatives. Predictably, the Ba’ath Party secured an overwhelming majority of more than two-thirds, indicating absolute control by the president. Notably, wanted criminals, war criminals, militia leaders, and former officers won seats in these unfair and unfree elections.
To understand what is happening in Syria today, what has transpired in recent years, and how the Syrian regime avoided collapse, it is crucial to delve into the nature of the ruling family and its allies. Understanding the governance structure and the influence of key partners is vital to grasping the military and geopolitical control there. The survival of the Syrian regime does not stem from its military strength alone but from the cruelty and danger associated with it. The regime’s power lies not only in its army but also in its deep historical ties with Russia and Iran and its strategic location near Iraq and Lebanon. These connections have allowed Assad to maneuver and survive despite the significant challenges and threats.
The Alawite Army Protects the Regime
Syria is a country ruled by a single family: the Assad family. The family’s rule began with Hafez al-Assad in the early 1970s and continues today under his son Bashar. For over 54 years, the dictatorship has remained unchanged. Hafez al-Assad, the father of the current president, systematically and strategically established the Syrian regime. Almost the entire state relies on the Alawite sect, a minority group to which the Assad family belongs. The Syrian regime exploited the poverty and socio-economic status of the Alawites, providing them with the most coveted government jobs, particularly in the military and security sectors. Most senior military officials are Alawites, loyal to the regime and their sect. The Alawite sect stands above all, sometimes even above the state itself, with security and military power concentrated in its hands and those of the omnipotent leader of Syria and his family.
Alawite security personnel live in wealth and prosperity, enjoying absolute freedom and complete immunity. They feel like the masters, benefiting from the corruption and authority in their hands. However, to achieve their current status, they had to pay a price. Over the years, many left their villages and migrated to Damascus, where they were recruited into the security service. The regime concentrated them and established luxury neighborhoods around the capital, near the leader’s palace. In fact, the neighborhoods adjacent to the palace are primarily populated by Alawites, and the entire area is under the sect’s complete security control, serving as a shield and barrier.
Colonel Maher al-Assad, Bashar Assad’s brother, heads the Republican Guard’s 4th Division, responsible for protecting Damascus, government institutions, and especially his brother’s palace. The guard is considered the most loyal and elite unit in the Syrian army, with most of its members being Alawites. Only members of the Republican Guard are allowed to move freely around Damascus, which explains why most other cities fell during the 2011 uprising, but Damascus remained relatively peaceful. The well-known Syrian saying, “The sect’s fate is the Assad family’s fate,” illustrates the deep connection between the sect’s destiny and the regime. This is one reason the Alawite sect did not join the uprising, despite the pressures and temptations placed on its leaders.
It can be said with certainty that the Syrian uprising failed largely due to the Alawites and their unwillingness to overthrow the leader who protects them. They stood as a defensive wall and fought to keep their president, not out of love for him, but to protect themselves. Every Syrian knows that if the uprising had succeeded and Assad’s rule had fallen, massacres would have been carried out against the Alawite sect across Syria, to avenge over 50 years of oppression and discrimination by the regime against other populations, primarily the Sunni majority in Syria. The Alawites and the regime share overlapping interests; in other words, the Alawites receive privileges at the expense of the Sunnis, thus protecting themselves and the president. The fate of the Alawites, who make up only about 10% of the population, is more closely tied to Bashar Assad and his regime than anyone else. To emphasize this, Assad’s regime has, for years, tried to deepen the divide between Sunnis and Alawites to secure the latter’s loyalty. Numerous fear-inducing and horrifying videos released by the regime in recent years were intended to scare the Alawites, making them understand that there is no choice but to cooperate with the regime and warning them against collaborating with those who seek to overthrow it.
Syria Has Been Divided into Control Zones
1. Regime-Controlled Areas: These regions reflect the presence of Russian and Iranian forces in Syria. Currently, more than 60% of Syria’s territory is under regime control, following victories over ISIS and extremist Islamic factions in recent years. The coastal plain, central Syria, and the south, as well as the east and parts of Aleppo, Homs, and other provinces, are under regime control. However, in the southern province, particularly in the Suwayda area with its Druze majority, the regime’s grip is weakening. Increasing protests and demonstrations over the high cost of living and severe economic conditions are evident.
2. Hezbollah Presence: Hezbollah maintains a significant presence in Syria, particularly in the city of Al-Qusayr. Located about 30 kilometers south of Homs and 500 meters above sea level, Al-Qusayr overlooks the Syria-Lebanon border. Its strategic location on the route connecting Damascus to the Mediterranean coast and its proximity to Lebanon enhances its importance. Hezbollah’s weapon warehouses, supplied directly from the sea, are also located in this city, reinforcing the organization’s presence and control in the area.
3. Russian Military Bases: Russia has dozens of bases, checkpoints, and military positions in Syria, mostly in strategic areas such as Hama, Al-Hasakah, and the port city of Latakia, home to the Russian airbase Khmeimim and other permanent bases. Additionally, the naval base in the port city of Tartus provides maritime support for their military operations in Syria.
4. Turkish-Controlled Areas: In 2018, Turkish forces captured extensive areas in northern Syria to combat ISIS and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (P.K.K). Turkey used the war to establish control and influence in these regions, collaborating with Syrian militias opposing the Syrian regime, including secular and Muslim Brotherhood factions. This provided Turkey with a legitimate pretext to occupy areas such as Afrin, Idlib, northern Aleppo, and parts of Raqqa and Al-Hasakah provinces. These areas now host dozens of Turkish bases, checkpoints, and other military posts, creating a buffer zone between Syria and Turkey.
5. Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria: Also known as Syrian Kurdistan, this is a multi-ethnic autonomous region declared unilaterally in 2013 during the Syrian civil war. The capital of this region is the Kurdish city of Qamishli, and the areas are under the control of the Democratic Union Party (P.Y.D).
6. US Military Presence: The US has more than 30 military bases and thousands of American soldiers in Syria to prevent ISIS from regaining control over Kurdish areas. The US leads the international coalition in partnership with the Kurdish Democratic Party, establishing a security zone in northern Syria near the borders with Turkey and Iraq, with international and Kurdish forces.
Iranian Takeover of Parts of Syria
After successfully establishing control over Lebanon through Hezbollah, Iran seeks to maintain its achievements in the Mediterranean, aiming to influence Jordan and counter Turkey’s ambitions. Primarily, Iran’s goal is to establish a Shiite corridor stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. Through its proxies, Iran is deepening its grip on the entire Middle East.
Before October 7, Gaza was also under its influence, with some suggesting that Iran orchestrated the massacre against Israel. Only Jordan currently stands firm against the Shiite ambition to dominate the Middle East and create a land siege around Israel from Lebanon via Hezbollah and Syria via its militias.
The Iranian regime will not relinquish Syria, as it has declared to the entire Arab world. Iran has invested billions to maintain Assad’s rule. Some claim that Iran even compensated Russia for the damages incurred while fighting ISIS and the rebels. In other words, Iran partially funded the war to save its ally, Bashar al-Assad. If Syria fell into the hands of the US and the West, it would sever the Shiite corridor and pose a significant threat to Hezbollah, Iran’s crown jewel in the Middle East. Most weapons shipments to Hezbollah arrive by air from Iran to Syria or overland from Iraq to Syria and then to Lebanon. Syria is Hezbollah’s lifeline.
Iran has established numerous militias in Syria, including Shiite militias with Pakistani and Afghan fighters such as the Abu Fadl al-Abbas Brigade, the Zulfiqar Brigade, and the Fatemiyoun Brigade. Before 2011, their role was to protect Shiite holy sites in Syria, such as the tomb of Zaynab, the daughter of Ali, the spiritual father of the Shiites, and other Shiite institutions. However, over the years, they have aided the regime in its fight against ISIS. Additionally, Iran funds and arms dozens of Sunni Palestinian militias within Syria. Tens of thousands of armed fighters have fought for the regime in recent years. These Shiite and Sunni militias, alongside Hezbollah, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the Russian Air Force, joined forces to crush the uprising in Syria and eliminate all regime opponents, whether from ISIS or other anti-regime rebels. Some notable Palestinian militias operating in Syria include:
- The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine – General Command
- The Palestine Liberation Army
- The al-Sa’iqa Forces (“The Thunderbolt”)
- The Galilee Forces
- The Free Palestine Movement
Just as Hezbollah controls Beirut’s airport, Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers and soldiers are stationed at several civilian and military airports in Syria, including in Damascus and Aleppo. They oversee the numerous weapons shipments sent to Hezbollah and coordinate the distribution of arms and equipment to Iranian and pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Lebanon.
Over the past decade, Israel has conducted more than 400 strikes and bombardments in Syria, all aimed at thwarting arms smuggling to Hezbollah, originating from Iran or Iraq. Trucks have also been targeted on the Syrian-Iraqi border to prevent the arrival of weapons to Syria and Lebanon. Hundreds of Iranian Revolutionary Guard members have been killed, some of whom were advisors, as acknowledged by the Iranian regime. These advisors typically operate in command centers and the Syrian Army’s general headquarters, coordinating the actions of militias in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, and previously in Gaza.
Furthermore, in an attempt to expand their influence, Iranians recruit local Syrians, bribe military personnel, deploy spies, and spread Shiite Islam among poor Syrians without the regime’s knowledge. The spread of Shiism aims to garner support for Iran and loyalty to the religious leadership of Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Shiite revolution. These actions have altered the demographics of several areas in Syria, especially in Damascus, which now resembles an Iranian province in some neighborhoods.
The Failure of the Arrangement with Israel
Numerous mediations and messages were exchanged between Israel and Syria, especially during the terms of Yitzhak Rabin and Benjamin Netanyahu, from 1993 to 1998. Some were direct, others were secret, or through intermediaries and countries, with the aim of establishing peaceful relations and neighborly ties between Syria and Israel. The last public attempt was made in January 2000, when, under US mediation, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak met with Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa, President Hafez al-Assad’s envoy, in Shepherdstown as part of a peace conference. The conference failed due to two main reasons: a dispute over the border location between Israel and Syria, and the Syrian president’s inflexibility, insisting on resuming negotiations from where they were left off with Rabin’s government in the mid-1990s. With the Syrian president’s death in June 2000, the negotiations came to an end.
Aside from holding the Golan Heights, captured from Syria during the Six-Day War, Israel has no territorial or economic ambitions in Syria. Israel’s only expectation from the Assad regime is to maintain calm along the borders and prevent Hezbollah or any other militia from launching rockets or infiltrating Israel. Therefore, Israel has an interest in Syria being under a strong president who controls the borders and maintains peace, as Hafez al-Assad did. Indeed, from 1967 until his death in 2000, not a single shot was fired from the Syrian border towards Israel.
During the Syrian civil war, the West demanded Assad’s ouster. Arrest warrants were issued against him for using chemical weapons against his citizens, and American and international sanctions were imposed on the president, his close associates, and the Syrian establishment. In 2019, the Americans enacted the “Caesar Act” to target the Syrian establishment and prosecute Syrian war criminals. In recent years, those efforts have all faded. Not only have international calls for Assad’s removal ceased, but Syria has also returned to the Arab fold. The Arab League readmitted Syria and lifted all sanctions against it. The Gulf states, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, granted Assad legitimacy and even normalized diplomatic relations with Syria, reopening many of their embassies that had been closed during the war. Today, Bashar al-Assad is considered legitimate, even highly so, in the eyes of the Arab world, not to mention the Russians, who have consistently supported him and voted against every Security Council resolution against him. Further proof of Assad’s legitimacy in the international community is the emerging plan for a meeting between him and his staunch enemy, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Despite this, Israel’s overall position has not changed over the years, yet there remains complete ambiguity regarding Israel’s stance on Assad. There was a disagreement within the Israeli security establishment about whether Assad was good for Israel. The Israeli establishment supported keeping Assad, fearing the “Lebanonization” of Syria and its division into numerous control zones, each potentially ruled by a different militia united by their hatred of Israel. Therefore, Israel was hesitant to cooperate on efforts to cause Assad’s ouster, despite all the Syrian opposition’s attempts to drag Israel into the war against Syria. Israel repeatedly stated that this was not its war. However, other security officials believed that Assad was the problem and that he should be ousted to end the growing Iranian presence in Syria and the arming of Hezbollah.
The Potential Alternative to Assad
From 1967 to 2012, there were no significant incidents from the Syrian front, and Israel hoped that situation would continue. However, with the outbreak of the civil war and the proliferation of militias, including the involvement of Iran and Hezbollah, hundreds of terrorist incidents and shootings towards Israel began to occur. The current Israeli doctrine continues to support keeping Bashar al-Assad in power. In retrospect, however, this doctrine is proving to be more harmful than beneficial. The fact that Assad’s army does not respond to Israeli attacks strengthens this doctrine. Israel is not militarily involved in Syria except for strikes against weapon shipments from Iran or Iraq and against weapon depots and ammunition warehouses in Syria.
Systematically and intentionally, Israel has almost never targeted the Syrian army or its bases. Many experts argue that Bashar does not respond because he is weak and that if he had prevented the Iranian weapon shipments from the start, Israel would not be attacking Syria. The prevailing opinion is that Bashar is a hostage to the Iranians, who have done everything for him and his survival, thus he cannot oppose them. Others claim he fears them and therefore has no option to prevent them from operating within Syria or using it as a transit point to Lebanon.
Another question faced by the Israeli security establishment is who would replace Assad. Over the years, dozens of figures have emerged, some former Syrian security officials, some supported by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and some backed by Bashar himself for deception purposes. However, none of them have proven capable of replacing the dictator. Syria needs a clean-handed president, a person unblemished and clean of corruption, a Sunni rather than an Alawite, a Syrian patriot who would not oppose Israel and simultaneously oppose Iran, Hezbollah, and Palestinian organizations. One person fitting this description is the Syrian exile Fahd al-Masri, head of the Syrian National Salvation Front, who has been living in France for three decades. In 2016, he appealed to the people of Israel and sought to make peace.
A person like al-Masri could bring calm to the Middle East, as he enjoys a consensus on the Syrian street. He is considered a moderate and is not controlled by any particular country. He is against Assad and against Iran. With such a president, there would be no need to attack Syria, as he would not allow Iranian involvement and would demand the cessation of all arms shipments. In interviews he has given to the media, he even committed to dismantling all Shiite and Palestinian militias if elected president. Bashar’s rule causes more harm to Israel than good. The overthrow of the Damascus dictator and his replacement with a president like Fahd al-Masri would bring calm to the Syrian front and perhaps even lead to peaceful and friendly relations, despite past conflicts and border disputes.