The release last Saturday of Sasha Tropnov, Iair Horn, and Sagie Dekel-Chen by Hamas and Islamic Jihad came amid numerous questions regarding the Israeli government’s decision-making process on the continuation and method of securing the hostages’ release. Hamas’s earlier statement in the preceding week that it would not release hostages in the upcoming phase, citing “Israeli violations,” indicated that the organization felt confident enough to dictate terms. Although the pressures applied—especially President Trump’s ultimatum of “Release them all by Saturday noon, or the gates of hell will open”—seemed to influence the decision to proceed with the release as planned, the question remains: Has the effect of the ultimatum now worn off? In any case, President Trump has already made it clear that the decision rests with Israel.
A year and a half after the war in Gaza began, and after Hamas suffered significant blows—particularly the elimination of most of its senior leadership and the extensive destruction of its infrastructure—one might have expected the group to be weakened. However, the reality on the ground is more complex. Otherwise, its operatives would not have made such a defiant announcement—despite the new Trump era—declaring they would not release the three hostages. This suggests that while its military capabilities have been damaged, Hamas still wields influence over regional dynamics and public perception.
Hamas Has Weakened, but Still Retains Capabilities
Several factors have contributed to Hamas’s weakening: First, the severe blows to its leadership and decision-making structure following the elimination of key figures such as Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Marwan Issa. Second, the extensive damage to the vast military infrastructure it had built over the years: a significant portion of its tunnels, rocket arsenal, and weapon stockpiles have been destroyed, though the organization may still retain some production capabilities. Additionally, there is the humanitarian crisis facing Gaza’s population: hundreds of thousands returning to the northern part of the Strip have found their homes and surroundings in ruins, realizing the grim future that awaits them. This hardship should, in theory, increase internal pressure on Hamas, alongside growing international pressure, with Egypt and Qatar—pushed by the U.S. administration—stepping up demands for the release of hostages and exploring alternative governance models for Gaza.
All these factors have indeed weakened Hamas but have not entirely dismantled it, and the group continues to pose a threat. It is crucial to remember that Hamas still holds the “hostage card,” with dozens of Israelis remaining in its captivity, serving as a significant leverage point against Israel. Hamas operatives also continue to govern the territory and manage life in Gaza despite the ongoing fighting. As part of this, Hamas controls the distribution of humanitarian aid, using it to reinforce its authority while likely also profiting from selling portions of the aid.
Regarding its military wing’s operations, Hamas is actively recruiting new operatives and attempting to restore its capabilities, possibly even in weapons manufacturing, albeit on a smaller scale. It continues to launch occasional rocket attacks, and recent rocket fire and attempts to smuggle in weapons suggest that the organization still retains offensive capabilities.
Decision Under American Pressure
There are now two possible scenarios: a limited deal shortly—additional hostage releases in exchange for humanitarian relief but without a comprehensive agreement—or a resumption of intense military action—Israel launching a significant operation, primarily in Rafah, in an attempt to deal a severe blow to Hamas. The in-depth security discussion held last Thursday at the Southern Command, attended by the Prime Minister, the Defense Minister, and top military officials, along with various statements from other senior Israeli officials, indicate that a return to fighting is a realistic possibility.
The release of the last three hostages has not eased public pressure, particularly from the Hostages’ Families Headquarters. In many ways, the harrowing reports from the freed hostages about the inhumane conditions of their captivity have only strengthened the families’ demands. Protests continue, including a fasting day to mark 500 days of war, alongside political clashes and disputes. The moment of decision for the Israeli government—whether to continue negotiations or resume military action—is rapidly approaching. Will Israel use the hostage release as proof that military and diplomatic pressure works and continues along this path? Will the government consider a broader deal, or will it opt to renew military operations, recognizing that Hamas will continue to use hostages as leverage?
It should be noted that all these dilemmas are also being considered under American pressure. While President Trump issued an ultimatum and even hinted at the possibility of American action, now, after the release of only three hostages and after the Israeli government chose to settle for this limited move, there are no apparent signs of another ultimatum (though with Trump, nothing is ever certain).
The U.S. is unlikely to take direct military action but may increase pressure on Egypt and Qatar to influence Hamas. Additionally, Washington’s ability to tighten sanctions on Hamas and restrict its financial activities will be tested in the coming weeks. It remains to be seen whether Trump will be satisfied with this selective release or continue demanding a broader one—and how Hamas will respond.
The situation, then, is at a boiling point. On one hand, Hamas has shown that it responds to pressure, but in practice, it continues to manage the crisis according to its interests, projecting strength and control. Trump’s declarations about “the gates of hell” have so far remained unfulfilled, appearing mainly as an attempt at psychological pressure—an important tactic, especially following the announcement of his immigration plan. However, if his statements remain mere words without accompanying Israeli actions, Hamas may start to doubt Trump’s next threat. The evolving dynamics must be closely monitored to see where they will lead.
