The “Iron Swords” war – launched by Israel in response to Hamas’ deadly terror attack on October 7, 2023, against Israeli communities near the Gaza border—also dealt a severe blow to the PA, significantly undermining its public standing. Currently, the PA stands at a pivotal juncture: one path could lead to its disintegration and collapse, while the other might offer an opportunity for reorganization and renewal.

The Palestinian Authority was established under the “Cairo Agreement,” signed on May 4, 1994, in the Egyptian capital, under the auspices of then-Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak—the agreement involved Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat. Dubbed the “Gaza and Jericho First” agreement, it provided for the establishment of Palestinian self-governance with legislative, judicial, and policing powers, alongside the transfer of the Gaza Strip and Jericho to Palestinian administrative control. Representatives from the United States, Russia, and Egypt witnessed the signing ceremony.

During the signing ceremony, an unusual event nearly derailed the agreement. Rabin noticed that Arafat was refusing to sign the attached maps. A break was called, during which Arafat was pressured—particularly by Mubarak, who expressed visible anger and even directed harsh curses at him. Ultimately, the PLO leader agreed to sign the maps, but not without adding a handwritten annotation expressing his defiance.

Since the establishment of the PA, Fatah—the most significant, largest, and dominant faction within the PLO umbrella—has become the ruling party. Many of its members occupy key positions in the PA’s civilian and security apparatus.

Over the 30 years since its founding, the PA has faced numerous challenges and obstacles that have hindered its proper functioning and threatened its stability and its very existence. Furthermore, the repeated failures of negotiations between Israel and the PLO during the Oslo process have left signed agreements unfulfilled, primarily due to significant disagreements between the parties.

One major obstacle to progress in peace negotiations has been the continuation of terror attacks against Israeli targets. The PA and its security forces have often been passive in addressing these attacks. Moreover, under Arafat’s leadership, the PA even encouraged such acts of terror.

"In the Judea and Samaria region, the Palestinian Authority faces problematic challenges, reflected in its inability to exercise effective and efficient control over the entire area, especially in the refugee camps"

The June 2007 Blow

The most significant turning point in the PA’s weakening occurred in June 2007, when Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip through violent force, expelling Fatah members and PA officials from the area. This event termed the “coup against legitimacy” in Palestinian historiography, was carried out with extreme violence, including throwing Fatah operatives and PA members off high rooftops in Gaza to their deaths.

At the time, I was an advisor to the Minister of Defense on Arab affairs. I vividly recall an urgent phone call from General Burhan Hamad, a senior official in Egypt’s General Intelligence Service and an advisor to the PA’s security apparatus in Gaza. Hamad pleaded for help to evacuate him from Gaza and secure his safe passage through the Rafah Crossing into Egypt—a mission that, under the circumstances, was entirely unrealistic. Ultimately, Hamad was evacuated in the car of Palestinian Unity Government Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, crossing into Egypt via Rafah.

Hamas’ violent takeover of Gaza created a dual governance system in Palestinian territories: the PA in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza. This split marked the first time since the start of the Oslo negotiations that the PA lost its exclusive representation of the Palestinian people. Moreover, Hamas’ seizure of Gaza was a strategic step toward its goal of challenging the PLO’s dominance over Palestinian leadership and influencing Palestinian strategy, particularly concerning the conflict with Israel.

In recent years, as Hamas has solidified its rule in Gaza and extended its influence in the West Bank, the PA has been perceived as a weak and nearly irrelevant actor in political terms. Efforts since June 2007 to achieve reconciliation between Palestinian factions have repeatedly failed.

As a result of this political division, the PA has become increasingly irrelevant regarding peace negotiations with Israel or any future arrangements concerning Gaza.

Rabin and Arafat at the signing of the Oslo Accords at the White House: "The Palestinian Authority was established under the 'Cairo Agreement,' signed in 1994"

Losing on the Media Front

In the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority (PA) faces significant challenges, notably its inability to exercise effective control over the entire region, particularly in refugee camps. In response, the PA has recently intensified efforts to re-establish its authority in areas where it has long been mainly considered absent. Over the past weeks, we have witnessed violent confrontations between Palestinian security forces and Islamist terrorist organizations, particularly in the Jenin refugee camp.

It is likely that in the aftermath of Israel’s campaign against Hamas, the PA will make diplomatic efforts to reassert its relevance as a governing authority, including in the Gaza Strip. Such efforts are expected to focus on active engagement with the United States, the European Union, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia to secure the PA’s inclusion in frameworks for managing Gaza’s future governance and administration.

Amid these challenges, including those heightened by the recent “Iron Swords,” voices within Fatah and the Palestinian street are calling for a leadership shakeup, urging the introduction of new figures at the decision-making level. There is hope that the PA will draw lessons from Israel’s wars against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the removal of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.

The call for new leadership has become more urgent due to the advanced age of PA President Mahmoud Abbas (commonly known as Abu Mazen), who is 89 years old. In addition to his role as PA president, Abbas serves as chairman of the PLO Executive Committee and leader of Fatah. His age and declining energy reportedly hinder his ability to lead necessary reforms and restructure PA institutions and security forces.

Recently, the PA has been engaged in a campaign against terrorist organizations in the city of Jenin, particularly its refugee camp. This campaign targets militants primarily affiliated with Hamas and Islamic Jihad. For the past month, Palestinian security forces have sought to restore law and public order in Jenin. This region has, in recent years, been dominated almost exclusively by terrorist elements. The confrontations in the West Bank, particularly in the refugee camps, have led to the emergence of territorial enclaves effectively under Islamist control.

Media coverage of the operation in Jenin has highlighted Brigadier General Anwar Rajab, who was recently appointed as the spokesperson for Palestinian security forces by Majed Faraj, head of the General Intelligence Service. Rajab, formerly associated with the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), previously served as an officer in the PA’s General Intelligence Service.

The PA faces another significant challenge on the informational front, as the Al Jazeera network has launched a media campaign against it in response to the actions of its security forces. The Qatari channel’s protests and negative coverage have prompted the PA Attorney General to file a lawsuit against Al Jazeera, aiming to enforce a ban on its broadcasts from Ramallah through police action. This move underscores the PA’s inability to successfully counter Al Jazeera’s widespread influence in a direct media confrontation.

"The need for a personnel change in the Palestinian Authority has recently taken on a sense of urgency given the advanced age of its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, who is 89 years old"

Toward the End of the Abbas Era?

The PA’s decision to launch a campaign against Islamist terrorist organizations in the Jenin refugee camp about a month ago has posed a complex and challenging task for its security forces. This effort is occurring amid significant local support for the Islamist groups operating in Jenin against the security apparatus. The campaign is being conducted under the slogan “Maintaining Security and Public Order.” The confrontations have claimed lives among PA security forces, with one notable casualty being Rashid Shaqo of the General Security Apparatus. Among the recent Palestinian civilian casualties in Jenin was journalist Shadha Saba’a, whose family has accused the security forces of responsibility for her death.

The prolonged operation in the refugee camp, coupled with escalating gunfire exchanges, has allowed opportunistic actors to exploit the situation, incite the Palestinian street, intensify protests, and amplify criticism against the PA. These developments have fueled calls for a leadership overhaul.

The demand for leadership change in the PA’s top echelons is now a dominant topic in Palestinian public discourse. This call comes during leadership transitions in the United States, with Donald Trump set to resume the presidency on January 20, 2025. Additionally, moderate Arab states have expressed interest in replacing Mahmoud Abbas as PA president.
Recent developments in the Palestinian arena, coupled with dramatic regional changes, including the fall of the Assad regime in Damascus and the rise of a new government led by Ahmad al-Sharaa (known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani), could significantly influence the Palestinian leadership’s future. This potential scenario necessitates close monitoring by Israel’s leadership, the IDF, and other security forces to ensure informed decision-making that safeguards Israel’s strategic and security interests.

Protests against Abu Mazen in Gaza: "As a result of Hamas's takeover of Gaza, a dual-headed governing system developed in the Palestinian arena"
photo: Anas-Mohammed / shutterstock.com