“The Deterrence System of Aggression” is the name chosen by the Islamist factions for the operation to liberate Syria from the long-standing tyranny of President Bashar Assad. These factions, led by Ahmad al-Shara, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, succeeded, starting on November 27, in capturing large parts of Syria within just a few days. Why was this timing chosen? It can be estimated that Hezbollah’s defeat in the “Iron Swords” war and the growing sense that Iran is weakening encouraged them to seize the opportunity.
The factions advanced and initially captured Aleppo, then Homs, and as a natural continuation, the capital, Damascus, quickly fell. Assad’s army collapsed within hours. Many senior Syrian officials fled to Lebanon, some to Iraq, and others dispersed to various Gulf countries. According to a Kremlin statement, President Assad and his family arrived in Moscow after his counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, granted them political asylum for humanitarian reasons. It is still unclear what happened to Assad’s brother, Maher, commander of the 4th Division and just as tyrannical as his brother, wanted for many war crimes against the Syrian people.
Thus, the Alawite rule in Syria, which lasted 55 years, ended. Since 1970, when Hafez al-Assad took control of the country, the family ruled with an iron fist, basing its power on personal and sectarian loyalty—no more. In the surprise attack in November, Assad’s army collapsed like a domino effect. Videos of Syrian soldiers stripping off their uniforms and refusing to fight went viral online, and even Assad’s last presidential decree, which ordered a 50% salary increase for soldiers to convince them not to abandon their posts, did not help. Soldiers abandoned their positions one by one, stripping off their uniforms, but it wasn’t just the Syrian army that abandoned Assad and his positions. Russia also abandoned the ousted president, damaging the historical alliance between the two countries that had been forged over sixty years ago.
Unlike in 2013, Russia did not deploy its aircraft to assist Assad’s army or his regime. No explosive barrels were dropped on the Islamist factions, thus clearing the way for the conquest of Syria and the retreat of what remained of the Alawite army to the Syrian coastline. In this Latakia region, most of the Alawite population resides.
The Eyes Were Always on Damascus
To understand who was behind the coup, it’s essential to understand the body that led it—the Syrian Liberation Front, founded on January 28, 2017. It is a merger of five Salafi Islamist factions that had fought for many years against Assad’s rule until they were forced to move to Idlib in northern Syria, where they awaited the right moment for an attack. Neighboring Turkey trained and armed them, not only with equipment and weapons but also with intelligence and funding, until they reached their goal. These are the five factions making up the front, considered a proxy of Turkey:
- Jabhat Fath al-Sham – The Levant Front.
- Harakat Nur al-Din al-Zenki – The Nur al-Din al-Zenki Movement.
- Liwa al-Haq – The Justice Brigade.
- Jabhat Ansar al-Din – The Ansar al-Din Front.
- Jaysh al-Sunna – The Army of Sunnis.
Al-Jolani (43) heads the front and was born in Saudi Arabia to a Syrian family. He joined al-Qaeda in 2003 and was close to the international terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, fighting alongside him against the Americans in Iraq. He was arrested by them and imprisoned from 2006 to 2011. After his release, he founded Jabhat al-Nusra with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, fighting against Assad’s regime. However, he opposed the merger of his group with ISIS, which led to the rivalry between him and al-Baghdadi. In 2016, al-Jolani left Jabhat al-Nusra and founded the Syrian Liberation Front. Until recently, he was considered a wanted man by the Americans, who offered a $10 million bounty for his head.
Hundreds of thousands of secular and Islamist rebels who fought against Assad’s army during the Arab Spring concentrated in Idlib in northwestern Syria, about 60 km from Aleppo and just 40 km from the Turkish border. There, they received years of training, armament, and support from Turkish authorities. Over the years, the Syrian fighters built an independent state in the region and managed their affairs autonomously.
But their eyes were always on Damascus. With Turkish funding and support, they became mercenaries, fighting against the Kurds and helping Turkish soldiers capture Afrin in early 2018, as well as fighting alongside them in Libya in 2019 as part of Turkey’s involvement there. In other words, the Syrian fighters became a proxy and even mercenaries serving under Turkey’s umbrella, carrying out Turkey’s agenda. With this support, the Islamist factions succeeded in capturing city after city within a week and toppling Assad’s regime.
The New Face of Syria
After conquering most of Syria and consolidating his leadership, al-Jolani has become the country’s de facto leader, with delegations from the United States, Germany, and several Arab countries visiting him in recent weeks. To solidify his rule, he appointed Salafi movement member Mohammad al-Bashir as the interim prime minister, who will serve until March 1. The goal is to restore stability to Syria and later hold democratic elections. The appointed government includes 13 ministers (one of whom is a woman) who vote as a bloc and effectively function as a technocratic government. One of the criticisms raised by Syrians is that the government is relatively homogenous, with all ministers being religious and belonging to Salafi groups. There is no representation of minorities like Druze, Alawites, Shiites, Kurds, or Christians, and more than that – there is no representation for the millions of Syrians living abroad. The new leader bypassed dozens of exiled Syrian politicians and intellectuals, none of whom were invited to participate in this government.
Similar to the process of de-Nazification that Germany underwent after World War II, it appears that Syria will focus, in the short term, primarily on the following tasks:
- Disbanding all armed militias, including Palestinian factions, and re-establishing Syria’s security mechanisms, including the army.
- Regulating the status of soldiers and workers in the security apparatuses who have not committed crimes or abused Syrian civilians.
- Creating a list of wanted individuals who will stand trial in Syria. The list will include President Bashar Assad and his family, including his brother Maher, as well as dozens of generals and security personnel, including correctional officers responsible for abuses and crimes against humanity.
- Establishing special courts for war criminals.
- Abolishing the 2012 anti-terror law, which grants excessive powers to security agencies to arrest anyone suspected of terrorism, establishing terror cells, or financing terrorism. This law was exploited to suppress the Syrian people, according to Syrians and human rights activists.
- Drafting a new constitution and strengthening the judicial system. During the upcoming period, laws will be abolished, changes will be made, and new regulations will be enacted. Parliament will be frozen to address all these points.
- Persecuting, imprisoning, and prosecuting members of the Ba’ath Party and security personnel who have blood on their hands, as well as disbanding the Ba’ath Party—the party of the ousted president.
- Abolishing and replacing the Syrian flag with the green flag symbolizes the revolution. As seen in photos from Syria, the flag was already replaced from the first day of Assad’s fall.
- If stability returns to the country, general elections will be held at the end of the interim period. If this period is extended, the general elections will occur once the situation stabilizes.
- Preparing to absorb hundreds of thousands of Syrians who were refugees in Europe and neighboring countries, including Turkey and Jordan.
The Shia Corridor Closes
During Bashar Assad’s era, Syria effectively became an Iranian province. Tehran established missile factories in Syria, developed laboratories, produced weapons, and transferred large quantities of arms and ammunition to Hezbollah. The Israeli Air Force carried out over 500 airstrikes in recent years, almost all targeting Hezbollah and Revolutionary Guard command centers, but the IDF hardly targeted Assad’s army. The conflict between Israel and Iran took place on Syrian soil, with President Assad facilitating the Shia corridor from Tehran to Baghdad, Damascus, and Lebanon.
Iraqi and Shia militias positioned themselves in Damascus under the pretext of guarding Shia holy sites. The process of Shia-ization reached its peak in recent years when the Iranians became entrenched in Syria, buying homes and entire neighborhoods in Damascus and even donating large sums of money to those who converted to Shia Islam. Under Bashar al-Assad, Syria changed its face and became more like Iran. One of the primary beneficiaries of this rapprochement was Hezbollah, which thrived under Assad’s rule, receiving weapons and ammunition from its patron in Tehran, which held command centers in Syria.
However, it is clear that today, after Assad’s removal, Hezbollah has suffered a heavy blow and has become one of the major losers of the conflict. It lost its lifeline, its smuggling routes through Syria, and emerged defeated, wounded, and humiliated from its war with Israel. This is no longer the same terrorist organization it was under the leadership of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, who also recently saw his era come to an end.
Israel? Not Looking for Trouble. For Now.
Since the fall of Assad’s regime and up to the writing of this article, Israel has destroyed almost the entire Syrian army, including the navy, artillery, and air force. The IDF has caused significant damage to Syria’s already disintegrating army, and not only has Israel captured the buffer zone between the two countries, but it has also taken several villages near the border. Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that “if the new regime acts against Israel, or allows Iran to re-establish itself in the country and operate against Israel from its territory, we will strike forcefully and decisively against these attempts and exact a heavy and painful price.”
These are strategic moves and statements aimed at the commander of the Islamist factions, al-Jolani. Israel has sent a clear message to him—don’t play with us. Anyone who does or follows Assad’s path will face a heavy blow.
The question remains: Does al-Jolani, from the outset, intend to fight Israel? Will he make anti-Israel statements like “liberate the Golan,” “liberate occupied Palestine,” or perhaps seek to assist Hamas in Gaza? It is not sure that the leader of the factions will want to open another front, at least not at this stage. The one serving as the supreme commander of the Salvation Government and de facto leader of the new Syria will be busy with the country’s internal affairs shortly. As he said to the media when asked about Israel’s attacks: “We are not looking for war.”
Iran Out, Who Will Fill Its Place?
The Islamist factions that conquered Syria are preparing to rule the country for many years. Syria will change its face and transform from an Iranian-Shia province into a Sunni-Islamic state. Evidence of this change includes modifications in the educational system, such as gender segregation, head coverings for girls, the addition of Islamic content, and other changes in preparation for the planned Islamization. Acts of revenge against minorities, especially the Alawites—seen in horrific videos that emerged from Syria—are expected to continue for a long time, as the new regime believes that more than fifty years of oppression cannot be forgotten or forgiven.
The impression the factions have left on the West so far is plausible, but it remains a mystery. For instance, will they be good for Israel? Opinions on this are divided if the situation is examined objectively. With Assad’s fall, there is no chance that anyone in Syria will cooperate with Iran. Thousands of Iraqi militias and Revolutionary Guard fighters have left the country, and al-Jolani has defined Iran as an enemy because it is clear to everyone that the alliance between Assad and Tehran led to Syria’s destruction. This is positive news for Israel.
A report from January 7 in the Wall Street Journal stated that Iran had withdrawn most of its forces from Syria, including the militias it had operated there for years. According to the report, members of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard fled back to Iran, and the Shia militias disbanded utterly. “This is a catastrophic failure for Iran,” said Andrew Tabler, a former Syria director at the U.S. National Security Council. Barbara Leaf, a senior official at the U.S. State Department for Middle Eastern affairs, commented on Iran’s withdrawal, saying, “Syria has become hostile territory for Iran. This doesn’t mean they won’t try to return, but it’s very hostile territory for them right now.”
In the current reality, it seems that the Israeli Air Force will not have to attack Iranian weapons stockpiles on Syrian soil or shipments of arms coming from Iran or Iraq anytime soon, and Syria will no longer serve as a transit point to Lebanon. However, it should be remembered that Assad refrained from directly attacking Israel and made sure not to provoke it. The Golan front was tranquil under his father, Hafez al-Assad, and even until 2011. Hafez and Bashar did not demand the Golan back, nor did they fight to reclaim it, and Israel had all the time and security in the world to invest in, develop, and rebuild the region. The question is whether the new leaders of Syria will demand parts of the Golan or even fight against Israel to reclaim it.
Beyond the question of confrontation with Israel—will the Islamist factions support the Palestinian cause? Will the Shia axis be replaced with a Sunni-Qatari-Turkish axis? Turkey, the big winner from the revolution, maintains strong connections with Islamist movements within Israel and among the Palestinians, and there is concern that the new axis might use Israeli Arabs to carry out provocations or even support terrorist activities against Israelis. Additionally, will this Sunni axis support Hamas and terrorist organizations, or will it enter a process of normalization with Israel? It is too early to answer these questions, but it can be said with certainty that many challenges lie ahead for us in the Syrian arena.