In a few weeks, Donald Trump will enter the White House—for the second time as president—to restore the U.S. to its status as a global superpower. One of the main issues awaiting him on his desk is the complex situation in the Middle East. Trump identifies the immense potential for breakthroughs in our region while examining the zero-sum game posed by Iran and its allies on one hand and Turkey, Qatar, and the “new Syria” inspired by the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi Jihadists on the other. Both factions are driving the region into endless chaos and war. According to the new U.S. administration, based on Trump’s remarks—primarily stemming from the events of October 7 but also decades of Palestinian conduct—the Palestinian leadership is part of the jihad axis. Thus, there is a legitimate concern that a Palestinian state, if established, would become an outpost for radical Islam and nationalist forces.
Despite their remarkable past opportunity to build a state from scratch for the youngest nation in the world, Palestinian liberation movements have consistently opted for an armed national revolution aimed at achieving their vision of victory—the destruction of Jewish Israel. Yet, Hamas’ takeover of Gaza led to its devastation rather than its transformation into the “Singapore of the Middle East.” After over a year and three months of war, Gaza remains a region of rubble and displaced people seeking refuge.
Similarly, the PLO granted authority to establish a national framework under the Oslo Accords violated the agreement from day one. It adopted a path of armed terrorism, maintained rejectionist organizations like Hamas and Islamic Jihad, established the armed Tanzim group, educated students to hate Israel and Jews, opposed the integration of Israeli Arabs, and worked to tarnish Israel’s international standing by promoting delegitimization, boycotts, and accusations of apartheid. However, today, many Arab nations recognize that the Palestinian Authority is an obstacle to peace—not only between Israel and the Palestinians but also in their relations with Israel.
Meanwhile, Trump has been closely observing developments in the Middle East since the start of Joe Biden’s administration. He has seen Iran expanding its influence, identified increasing radicalization, and understood the potential consequences for the region. He envisions the “new Middle East,” previously shaped by European leaders, the UN, and the Biden and Obama administrations, being dismantled by Israel and replaced with fertile ground for two opposing vectors: the axis of prosperity and the Islamist Sunni axis of evil.
Jerusalem at the Center of Their Ambitions
As always, President Trump will propose a business-oriented solution: those who align with us will prosper, while those who oppose us will face destruction. The U.S. will wield its economic and military might, and Israel, as the West’s forward base, will be safeguarded with defensible borders. As a hub of technological innovation, Israel is a model for leading the region to prosperity and security. Trump will urge nations to board the American locomotive toward unimaginable futures but will face a three-headed axis of resistance—Iran, Houthi-controlled Yemen, and the Muslim Brotherhood coalition led by Turkey and Qatar, alongside the Syrian rebel regime.
Each of these factions views the Jewish state’s development, particularly its consolidation in Jerusalem, as an affront to Islam’s mission to lead the world. Each also seeks to position itself as the liberator of Jerusalem, endowed with the third holiest site in Islam—Al-Aqsa Mosque, located on the southern part of the Temple Mount. This is despite the Qur’an explicitly stating that prayer toward Jerusalem was meant to demonstrate to Muslims that Jews would not align with them even if they adhered to their faith.
In the Qur’an’s Surah Al-Baqarah (The Cow), the matter is addressed explicitly: “The foolish among the people (the Jews) will say: ‘What has turned them (the Muslims) away from their qibla (direction of prayer) which they formerly observed?’ Say: ‘To Allah belongs the east and the west; He guides whom He wills to a straight path.’ We appointed the direction you formerly observed (Jerusalem) only so that We might know who follows the Messenger and turns on his heels.” When it became clear that the Jews would not follow them, the prayer direction shifted to Mecca: “Now We shall turn you to a direction of prayer that will please you. So turn your face toward the Sacred Mosque (in Mecca). Wherever you are, turn your faces toward it.” Thus, there is no longer a need to persuade the Jews: “Even if you present every proof to the People of the Scripture (the Jews), they will not follow your qibla.”
Over time, the Islamic tradition elevated Jerusalem’s status, attributing to the location where the Prophet Muhammad was transported during the Night Journey (Al-Isra) from his home in Mecca and ascended to the heavens (Al-Mi’raj). Through this journey, the Prophet connected Mecca, Jerusalem, and the divine, bequeathing the rights of the Children of Israel to the site to Muslims. This negation of Jewish claims rendered their historical sanctity void, and all Jewish prophets were reinterpreted as Muslims. Solomon’s Temple was reframed as a mosque—a place to worship Allah.
Thus, Jewish prayer on the Haram al-Sharif (Temple Mount) is seen as deeply offensive by representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood within and beyond Israel. This is evident in speeches by Mansour Abbas, who claimed that visits by figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir defile the holy site. Ahmad Tibi and other Arab Knesset members share this perspective.
Jewish visits to the Temple Mount and prayers there are, in turn, political fodder for Turkey’s leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who aspires to lead the Arab world, and for Qatar, which sees itself as a promoter of Islam globally, leveraging its financial resources and its media outlet, Al Jazeera, to further this agenda.
The preservation of the Haram al-Sharif has become a religious obligation for all sectors of Palestinian society, both within Israel and in the territories. For Hamas and the Islamic movements in Israel, the Zionist takeover of Islamic Palestinian land—particularly the Al-Aqsa Mosque—has disrupted the divine cosmic order and undermined the historical and religious foundations of their society. This religious grievance is compounded by the national injury stemming from the establishment of the State of Israel on Palestinian and Arab land.
Erdogan’s Long Arm
For years, activists from the Islamic Movement recruited male and female volunteers—known as the Murabitun and Murabitat—from within Israel and the territories. Their role was to maintain a presence on the Temple Mount and provoke non-Muslim visitors. The term “ribat,” from which their names are derived, means attachment or connection—to the sacred site of Al-Aqsa, Palestine, Islamic, Arab, and Palestinian traditions, and the one true faith—Islam. The “bitter patience” endured by Muslims under the rule of the oppressive and deceitful State of Israel, alongside “sumud”—steadfastness in clinging to the sacred land despite all challenges—are the actions of a devout believer seeking to defend the land of Dar al-Islam (the House of Islam) from harm by transient regimes of falsehood.
Two of the most prominent religious-political leaders active on the Temple Mount are Sheikh Raed Salah and former Grand Mufti Sheikh Ekrima Sabri. Both represent the global Muslim Brotherhood movement, whose patrons are Turkey and Qatar. Turkey’s growing regional involvement under Erdoğan, who currently serves as the primary patron of the Muslim Brotherhood globally, suggests that events in Jerusalem are part of a broader effort to establish Turkish regional hegemony at the expense of other players, such as Jordan and the Palestinian Authority.
Erdoğan’s Turkey enjoys unprecedented popularity among Israel’s Arab population, particularly in East Jerusalem. Public Turkish support for the Palestinian cause and the issue of Al-Aqsa, coupled with Erdoğan’s allocation of millions of dollars to East Jerusalem, have garnered significant sympathy and support. This involvement is facilitated through collaboration with Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated figures in the city, who often act as allies or agents of Turkey. Through its extended arms—its governmental aid agency, its consulate in Jerusalem, and a network of Turkish organizations with local branches in Israel—Turkey funds various activities on the Mount: Quranic study groups, transporting worshippers to and from the mosque, iftar meals during Ramadan, renovation and cleaning campaigns, and more.
Turkey also operates through charities that support merchants, business owners, and residents of the impoverished Old City. This is part of a strategy to strengthen economic resilience as a key component of the broader struggle for steadfastness—reinforcing ties to the land and preparing for eventual settlement. Similar to other Islamist movements and states active around the Temple Mount, Turkey emphasizes the Islamic nature of Palestine and the desecration of its sanctity by Israel and the Jews, viewing it as an occupation of Dar al-Islam. They assert the necessity of returning these lands, consecrated as waqf (Islamic endowment), to Muslim control until the Day of Judgment (Yawm al-Qiyamah).
In recent years, groups affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood—such as Hamas, the Islamic Movement, and others—have enjoyed extensive freedom of movement on the Temple Mount, primarily through the Murabitun and Murabitat. These permanent protesters were deployed to amplify the claim that “Al-Aqsa is in danger.” They harassed Jewish and Christian visitors, disrupting their ability to connect spiritually with the site, and instead used the Mount as a stage for their “dawah” (Islamic outreach) activities, including youth camps and cultural and recreational events for women and children.
Al-Julani: Respect Him, but Be Wary of Him
The Islamic Movement and Hamas, with Turkey’s support, have undermined Jordan’s influence and control over the Temple Mount. From their perspective, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority represent the “old order,” and their goal is to strengthen the influence of Islamic Palestinian elements in Jordan, East Jerusalem, and refugee camps in the territories. The impact of this religious and political takeover, and Jordan’s diminishing role on the Temple Mount, extends far beyond the loss of control over the site—it has significant political ramifications within the kingdom itself.
Erdogan’s patronage of Hamas, hosting its leaders, and financing their activities against Israel parallels his support for other extremist Islamist groups in the Arab-Islamic world. For example, he supported the Islamist government in Tripoli, Libya, as well as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other rebel groups in the Idlib province of northern Syria. This assistance enabled them to seize control of these areas after Hezbollah weakened, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards faltered, and both Russia and Assad’s army faced setbacks.
Erdogan aims to create a Sunni Islamist bridge stretching from Turkey southward to Syria and northern Lebanon, reaching Jordan and the Palestinian territories, with Istanbul and Jerusalem at its core. Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, regarded until his death as the spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, referred to Istanbul as the capital of the future caliphate and saw Erdoğan as its rightful heir and the only person capable of restoring Islam to its former glory. However, Erdoğan’s Turkey cannot control Mecca and Medina, which were once under Ottoman rule, and thus aspires to dominate the sacred Islamic sites in Syria and Palestine/Israel.
It is no coincidence that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus immediately after rebel forces led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani (born Ahmed al-Sharaa) took over the city. Erdoğan seeks to gain control over Kurdish areas in northern Syria, resettling Sunni Syrian loyalists in these regions. Rebel groups have begun persecuting the Alawite population, which previously dominated Syria, while Erdoğan’s army assists them in attempts to dismantle Kurdish autonomy. Erdoğan has publicly declared that provinces such as Aleppo and Damascus are as integral to Turkey as Istanbul, Izmir, and Ankara, portraying them as part of the Ottoman Empire’s historical territories. In Arabic, he proclaimed: “Man sabar zafar”—“He who is patient will be victorious”—in response to his followers’ demands to reclaim Jerusalem.
Erdoğan leverages his military influence in the “new Middle East,” his Islamist stature, and Turkey’s NATO membership to retract the commitments of Atatürk’s Turkey in the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne, which prohibited Turkish aspirations for territories beyond Anatolia.
Al-Julani is a cunning Islamist strategist who will do whatever it takes to maintain power and avoid the fate of his predecessor, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was sent to Syria to establish an Islamic emirate. Israel must approach him with caution, respecting him while remaining wary, and call on the international community to protect minorities in Syria. At the same time, Israel should consolidate control over border areas it seized after Assad’s fall. Al-Julani is following in the footsteps of Muhammad, who employed divide-and-conquer tactics between the Jews of Khaybar and the Quraysh tribe of Mecca, signing a ten-year truce at Hudaybiyyah before ultimately conquering Mecca just two years later. After subduing his enemies in Syria, Al-Julani could redirect his resources to support other Islamists in the region, potentially threatening Israel.
Qatar’s Aspirations
Qatar’s ambitions warrant extensive analysis, but it suffices to note its role during the 2022 World Cup in reviving the Palestinian issue on the global agenda. Qatar has engaged in subversive efforts to delegitimize Israel within academic and research institutions worldwide, provided financial support to Hamas in Gaza before the war, disseminated Hamas’s false narratives during the conflict, and fueled hatred of Israel and Zionism through Al Jazeera.
Qatar’s financial and ideological activities, combined with hosting a significant Turkish military base on its territory and benefiting from its protective umbrella, exemplify the multifaceted nature of jihad: financial jihad (jihad bil-mal), militant jihad (jihad bil-saif), and intensive propaganda (dawah). The Iranian axis, which has dominated the region for decades, has been severely weakened by Israel’s actions, creating an opportunity to destabilize the Ayatollah regime during one of its most vulnerable moments. Iran is grappling with a dire economic balance, massive debts, domestic unrest, and threats from within and without.
This moment represents a critical opportunity for the Trump administration. The new president can potentially draw countries like Iraq, which recognizes the consequences of conflict with Israel, post-Hezbollah Lebanon, and even post-Houthi Yemen, into the Abraham Accords.
Neutralizing the Houthis – On Their Turf
When it comes to the Houthis, Israel has yet to unravel the secret behind their power. The armed militias that form the Houthi army largely stem from coalitions of tribes belonging to the Zaydi Shia sect, including the Khawlan and Hashid tribal coalitions. These groups historically benefited from collecting tribute payments from the central government in Sana’a. Today, the tribes profit from collecting tolls from ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea. The Houthi-controlled Yemen is a predominantly mountainous country with challenging terrain and vulnerable roads connecting cities under their control. Israel must abandon its strategy of airstrikes on airports and seaports and instead identify pressure points that can be leveraged against the Houthis.
The tribal coalitions dominate the cultivation of khat, a narcotic plant to which many Yemeni men are addicted. The dependency on this plant and its central role in the Houthi economy and its control over the population is comparable to the centrality of Captagon pill production in Assad’s economy, Hezbollah’s cannabis fields, and the opium fields of Afghanistan’s Taliban regime. Targeting these sources would severely harm the Houthis. Israel should adopt a gunboat diplomacy strategy, focusing its naval capabilities on offensive measures. With the maritime force now freed up from its missions in the Mediterranean—after neutralizing Hamas’s maritime power, significantly damaging Hezbollah’s capabilities, and dismantling Assad’s army—it can allocate considerable resources to the Red Sea front.
A blockade should be imposed on Houthi-controlled Yemen, with missile strikes from submarines and ships targeting the roads connecting the Houthi strongholds around Saada and Houth to the capital, Sana’a, as well as the cities of Dhamar and Taiz. The water sources should be bombed, and the fragile economy of these impoverished Houthi-controlled areas should be weakened. Such actions could undermine the Houthis enough to encourage opposition groups—the official Yemeni government and Islamist forces—to besiege and neutralize them, potentially leading to their eventual downfall.
The Houthis, known as Ansar Allah (Supporters of Allah), have declared their mission to fight America and Israel, viewing Jews as accursed and believing that their struggle will bring about Islam’s ultimate victory. They compare themselves to the Arab tribes of Aws and Khazraj, who migrated from Yemen to Yathrib (modern-day Medina) in the 5th century CE following the collapse of the Marib Dam, located east of the Houthis’ modern territory. These tribes provided refuge and support to the Prophet Muhammad and his followers (the Muhajirun, or Emigrants) when they fled Mecca during the famous Hijra of 622 CE. The Prophet’s supporters from Aws and Khazraj were called the Ansar (Helpers of Allah and His Messenger).
The Houthis equate their war against America, the leader of global infidelity, with the struggle against the Quraysh tribe of Mecca. They see their fight against Israel as analogous to the battles with Jewish tribes in Medina and Khaybar and their broader conflict with global Jewry as part of an eternal war between good and evil—between those chosen by God who strayed from the righteous path and those who replaced them and inherited their mission and primacy.
Israeli government spokespeople should remind the Houthis that the Jews they consider accursed were once the rulers of Yemen before its leaders converted to Islam. The Himyarite Kingdom of Yemen was a thriving Jewish kingdom, as was the Hijaz region, where Jews held power. There is no more fitting name for an operation to dismantle Ansar Allah forces than the name of the last Jewish king, “Dhu Nuwas”—Yusuf Asar, the one with curls or sidelocks.
For the Houthis, Israel’s conquest of Jerusalem and Jewish prayers on the Temple Mount represent the triumph of Jewish heresy over the Islamic faith. In this regard, the struggle against Israel unites the three axes—Turkey, Iran, and Yemen—which seek to dominate the region and undermine the primacy of the Jewish state. This is Israel’s moment to convince the Trump administration of the necessity of confronting all three fronts, just as it persuaded the previous administration to withdraw from the nuclear deal with Iran. Turkey should be confined within the borders of Anatolia because replacing Iranian influence in Syria with Turkish influence is not a solution. The Kurds, as a liberal nation, must be protected at all costs—they neutralized ISIS, prevented Islamist forces from advancing southward and eastward, and blocked pro-Iranian militias from moving westward. Israel could arm the Kurds with captured Hezbollah weapons, as well as support the Druze in Hauran.
Israel, on its part, must allocate its military resources wisely. It should decisively defeat Hamas, continue weakening Hezbollah, and, on a broader scale, maintain control over border areas in Syria, lift the Houthi siege, and achieve a decisive victory.
It seems there has never been a better opportunity for Israel to integrate into the region and overcome its traditional adversaries—an opportunity that must be seized.