Almost a year into Operation Iron Swords, on October 17, 2024, Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s leader in Gaza, was killed in an unplanned encounter without prior intelligence. Sinwar was located in the Tel al-Sultan neighborhood of Rafah, close to the tunnel where six Israeli hostages were murdered in late August 2024. Evidence at the scene indicated he had recently been in the vicinity.
Sinwar’s death followed the July 31, 2024, targeted elimination in Tehran of Ismail Haniyeh, who had been designated as his successor in leading Hamas’ political bureau. Together, these eliminations constitute the most significant and dramatic events since the outbreak of the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Taking out the architect behind the brutal October 7, 2023, attack on the Gaza envelope communities is a notable military and moral victory for Israel, and it may mark a turning point that will not only shape the trajectory of the Gaza conflict but could also influence other regional flashpoints involving Israel.
Reports in the Israeli media stated that Yahya Sinwar’s body was transferred, following an autopsy at the Abu Kabir Forensic Institute in Tel Aviv, to a secure, undisclosed location. Israel’s likely intent in retaining Sinwar’s body is to use it as a possible bargaining chip in future negotiations for a new deal to release hostages.
The immediate significance of Sinwar’s elimination is, without a doubt, the effective transformation of Hamas in Gaza into a leaderless organization, akin to a flock without a shepherd. The disappearance of Hamas’s most dominant and influential figure in recent years, who by virtue of his charismatic personality, assertive, arrogant, and outward demeanor, the confidence he projected, and the unwavering trust he enjoyed from rank-and-file operatives, had overshadowed other figures in Hamas leadership, even those formally higher in seniority and status within the movement’s hierarchy.
The elimination of Sinwar has left a profound leadership vacuum within Hamas in Gaza, a void unlikely to be filled in the near future, given the continuous state of warfare in the region. In the past year alone, nearly all senior operatives within Hamas’s top command structure have been neutralized by Israel. Among the most notable losses were Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’s military wing, eliminated on July 13, 2024; Marwan Issa, Deif’s deputy, eliminated on March 11, 2024; and Rawhi Mushtaha, eliminated on October 3, 2024.
Currently, three remaining figures within Hamas’s military wing in Gaza are viewed as potential successors to lead and shape the organization’s future activities. All three are wanted by Israel, which subjects them to a constant, imminent threat of elimination. Given the ongoing Israeli Defense Forces’ search efforts, these individuals are essentially “living on borrowed time,” likened to “the walking dead.” The identified individuals are Mohammed al-Sinwar, Izz al-Din Haddad, and Mohammed Shabaneh.
Following the death of Mohammed Deif, command of Hamas’s military wing shifted to his successor, Mohammed al-Sinwar, the brother of the recently eliminated Yahya Sinwar. Mohammed al-Sinwar has gained notoriety for his ruthlessness, becoming a high-priority target for Israel, which has set a reward of $300,000 for any information leading to his capture, whether dead or alive—just $100,000 short of the sum offered for Yahya. This reward underscores Israel’s resolve in pursuing him. Mohammed al-Sinwar is further linked to the abduction and prolonged captivity of IDF soldier Gilad Shalit, marking him as a key figure in Hamas’s operations.
Mohammed Sinwar is emerging as the likely successor
Another key figure in Hamas’s military ranks is Izz al-Din Haddad, known as “Abu Suhaib,” who serves as the commander of Hamas’s Gaza Brigade. Haddad has survived several assassination attempts, with the IDF placing a bounty of $750,000 on his head during the war. In a battle order issued by Haddad on October 6, 2023, the day before Hamas’s terror assault on the Gaza envelope, he instructed organization militants to capture a significant number of Israeli soldiers in the initial attack phases and transfer them to Gaza.
Mohammed Shabaneh holds a senior position within Hamas and, since Operation Protective Edge in 2014, has commanded Hamas’s Rafah Brigade, overseeing four battalions, including the elite Nukhba unit that played a central role in the October 7 terror assault. Shabaneh has also survived multiple targeted assassination attempts, including recent ones during IDF ground operations in Rafah. Throughout the war, unverified reports have circulated of his death at IDF hands, though neither Israeli nor Palestinian sources have provided official confirmation to date.
Insights from conversations with sources knowledgeable about the Palestinian arena suggest that Mohammed al-Sinwar will likely be chosen by Hamas’s Shura Council as the head of the organization’s political bureau. However, the process may not proceed immediately due to the challenging conditions in Gaza amid ongoing IDF activities on the ground. Under these circumstances, should Mohammed al-Sinwar be elected, he would likely struggle to operate as expected, as his primary focus would need to be on personal security and survival, seeking refuge from Israeli forces pursuing him for retribution.
It should be noted that just hours after the official announcement of Yahya al-Sinwar’s assassination on October 17, 2024, Arab media reported that Khaled Mashal had been appointed as his acting replacement. According to the report, Mashal is now tasked by Hamas with managing negotiations with mediators for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages.
Following the elimination of al-Sinwar, the critical significance emerging from the current situation with Hamas is unmistakably clear: Hamas, as a military force, has nearly collapsed and, in essence, has been defeated. Its operations in Gaza against the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are now conducted without a structured command and control system, primarily involving sporadic actions by small, uncoordinated units lacking central leadership.
Nevertheless, it is essential to stress that, based on past experience, “no man is irreplaceable,” and Hamas has, within a relatively short timeframe, successfully replaced high-ranking members eliminated by Israel with new operatives. However, under current circumstances, Hamas faces significant challenges in filling the leadership void, especially given IDF control over the region. Consequently, Israel is committed to maintaining close and continuous intelligence surveillance through the IDF and the Israel Security Agency (Shabak), taking necessary actions to prevent and thwart the rise of a new Hamas operational leadership.
It’s also important to note that Hamas has been actively recruiting new operatives during the war to replenish and replace those killed or injured in clashes with the IDF.
Close to collapse, yet unyielding
The assassination of Yahya al-Sinwar has delivered a critical blow to Hamas morale, likely dampening the enthusiasm of young Palestinians to join Hamas in the numbers seen over the past year. This development opens a significant “window of opportunity” for Israel to secure a new ceasefire agreement and pursue the release of the 101 remaining hostages held in Gaza. Israel must act swiftly to maximize this momentum, channeling creative efforts toward freeing the captives. Prioritizing this mission, the IDF’s ground forces must not only dismantle Hamas operatives and infrastructure but also redouble intelligence efforts to locate the hostages. Employing a diverse array of tactics, including psychological warfare, will be essential.
A strategic “carrot-and-stick” approach is recommended: threatening the captors, especially if harm comes to the hostages, while simultaneously offering incentives, such as personal safety assurances and financial rewards, for any information leading to the hostages’ release. Engaging Egypt and Qatar as intermediaries could further pressure Hamas and pave the way for a viable agreement.
Meanwhile, at least officially, there has been no indication of a more pragmatic approach from Hamas regarding its willingness to move toward finalizing a new deal on the issue of the hostages This position was underscored on October 18 by Khalil al-Hayya, who succeeded Yahya al-Sinwar as deputy head of Hamas’s political bureau in Gaza. Al-Hayya asserted, “The Israeli hostages will not return until the war against Gaza ends and the IDF forces withdraw.” He further emphasized Hamas’s enduring commitment to “establishing a Palestinian state over all Palestinian territory, with Jerusalem as its capital.”
Al-Hayya’s declaration, in the current context, signals that despite the substantial setbacks Hamas has endured in the war, it remains resolute in maintaining its conditions as prerequisites for any agreement with Israel. Nevertheless, given the strategic strains in Gaza, which have forced Hamas to transfer its leadership and decision-making functions to its external branch, there may yet be room for some adjustments to its position. This shift could stem from pressures exerted by mediators, particularly Egypt and Qatar, and indirectly from the American administration, all of whom may encourage a more flexible approach to advance negotiations for a potential deal.
An Opportunity to Expedite the Hostage Deal
The elimination of Yahya al-Sinwar marks a significant achievement for Israel, dealing Hamas a severe operational and moral blow, possibly even a decisive one. Israel must act quickly to capitalize on this achievement and leverage the advantages it presents. The immediate impact of al-Sinwar’s elimination lies in its role as a crucial milestone in achieving Israel’s war objectives, as defined by its political leadership at the outset of the campaign: the defeat of Hamas as both a military and political power and the return of the hostages. Given the current circumstances, Israel is obligated to exploit Hamas’s newfound vulnerability and strategic distress to reinvigorate efforts toward a new deal for the hostages. This would entail adopting a more flexible approach and offering creative, even generous, ideas to encourage Hamas to move forward on this issue.
