In a speech in 2016, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah movement who Israel assassinated on September 27, 2024, declared: “Everything that Hezbollah represents comes from Iran: the budget, guidance, weapons, missiles, salaries of its operatives, food and drink, the ideology—everything.”
In one of his earliest speeches at the start of his military and political career in the early 1980s, Nasrallah clarified that “the vision he shares is the establishment of a vast Islamic state, led by Imam Khomeini.”
In the years leading up to the Iron Swords War, Iran supported the creation of a well-trained and well-armed military force that would be deployed along Israel’s borders and strike it from multiple directions and fronts, effectively deterring Israeli leaders from taking action against the Islamic Republic of Iran. While Iran was engaged in subjugating Arab lands and peoples traditionally considered part of the Sunni Muslim world, its loyal proxy forces would keep Israel preoccupied and prevent it from posing a threat to Iran.
As part of this strategy—designed to ensure loyalty at the critical moment of Israel’s strangulation and ultimate defeat—Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who perished in a mysterious helicopter crash, frequently visited Beirut. He met with key proxy leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, Ziyad al-Nakhalah (leader of the Islamic Jihad), and leaders of Hamas stationed in Lebanon, among them Saleh al-Arouri, whom Israel also assassinated on January 2, 2024.
Indeed, the voice was Khamenei’s, but the hands were those of the proxy forces—built systematically and persistently by the chief orchestrator, who was himself eliminated by Trump’s U.S.—Qasem Soleimani. Like Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, Soleimani had visited Israel’s border and observed the Upper Galilee from Iran’s viewing promenade, built in the Lebanese village of Maroun al-Ras, overlooking northern Israel. Iran placed a replica of the Dome of the Rock there, flying its national flag atop it—an unmistakable demonstration of its regional dominance and the undeniable threat it posed to Israel.
At the same time, Iran sought to prevent a scenario in which one of its proxies launched an independent military campaign against Israel, potentially suffering severe consequences and weakening the broader network of forces encircling Israel. This was precisely what happened to Hezbollah in 2006 after it abducted Israeli soldiers Goldwasser and Regev, which led to the Second Lebanon War. In its aftermath, Nasrallah admitted that had he foreseen the war’s outcome, he would have refrained from the operation.
To appeal to the Arab masses in the Middle East and draw them into the embrace of the Islamic Republic, Iran’s first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, initiated a decree declaring the last Friday of Ramadan as Quds Day. On this day, protests and sermons emphasize Jerusalem’s significance to Islam and the duty to liberate it from the “Little Satan”—Israel. According to Iran’s doctrine, Israel represents the forward base of Western imperialism, led by the “Great Satan”—the United States and Britain.
Khomeini believed that “the road to Karbala passes through Jerusalem.” That is, the connection of Islamic believers to the Shiite worldview would only be possible if Iran positioned itself as the primary address for the national and religious aspirations of Arab peoples seeking to return Jerusalem to Islamic and Arab control—through the annihilation of the Zionist entity. Khomeini marked Iran as the leader of the Islamic nations, especially after Egypt’s “betrayal” of the Palestinian cause, exemplified by the Khartoum Conference’s call to fight Israel to the bitter end.
Iran Built an Empire – Almost
Thus, Khomeini declared that “the path to Jerusalem passes through Karbala.” Karbala, one of Shiite Islam’s holiest cities, is where Imam Hussein, the founder of Shiism, is buried. The city in present-day Iraq is sacred to Shiites because it is the burial place of Hussein, the grandson of Prophet Muhammad. Shiites believe that Islam’s leadership should remain within the Prophet’s lineage. Hussein, who challenged the legitimacy of the Umayyad Caliphate, waged war against it and was ultimately killed in a humiliating act—his head severed by the caliph’s envoys and sent to Umayyad Caliph Yazid as a trophy.
This event symbolizes the victory of Sunnis over Shiites, who have since remained a persecuted minority. To this day, Shiite believers mourn Hussein’s death on the tenth of Muharram, known as Ashura. Khamenei, Khomeini’s successor, perceived Iran’s struggle against Israel and the West as a dual battle: the fight of oppressed nations against established imperial powers, combined with Shiism’s historic struggle to lead the Muslim world. A battle against the hedonistic West, to be spearheaded by the historically marginalized Shiites who had long been denied their rightful leadership.
In recent years, it seemed that Shiite Iran, in its relentless pursuit of Israel’s destruction, was becoming an admired state among Muslims worldwide. Iran’s grip on Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and even Gaza and the West Bank transformed it into a regional empire.
Over the past year, however, Israel has systematically weakened the tentacles of Iran’s proxy network along its borders, primarily the Sunni Islamic Emirate of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah’s absolute control over the Lebanese border. A series of massive strikes against Iranian proxy forces in Iraq, eastern Syria, and the Syrian Golan aimed to create a direct corridor to Iran’s borders—granting Israeli Air Force jets full operational freedom in the region. The decisive turning point in the Iran-Israel confrontation had been reached. Previously constrained by restrictions on flying over countries like Jordan and Saudi Arabia on its way to Iran, Israel found itself unshackled from regional limitations—free to float like a butterfly and sting like a bee, delivering the final knockout.
The Nation of Chess in a Zugzwang Move
The Iranians are master chess players. They have patience and invest in the long term, so they must be defeated in their way—with patience, determination, and perseverance. As Napoleon Bonaparte, one of history’s greatest military commanders, once said: “Victory belongs to the most persevering.” Or, in the Hebrew equivalent: “If you labor and find success, believe it.”
In the war of blows that Israel has led against Iran, it seems that Israel is attempting to subdue the Persian Empire with a strategic chess move—a checkmate it is striving to achieve.
Israel is combining two winning chess strategies in its battle to dismantle the empire Iran has built: Check and Zugzwang.
In this context, “check” represents a direct threat to the king—symbolizing the Iranian state—an explicit warning that the next move may be decisive. Iran, now finally under threat, must change this reality by moving its king, blocking the attacking piece, or eliminating the threatening piece. However, Iran cannot relocate its strategic sites, which are now under direct threat from Israel (moving the king). It also cannot block the Israeli Air Force’s attack routes, as its air defense systems are inferior to Israel’s aerial capabilities. Those defense systems that survived Israel’s initial crushing assault will not be sufficient to protect it.
The last option Iran could attempt—eliminating the threatening piece—is also off the table. The IDF, particularly Israel’s aerial warfare systems, enjoys absolute superiority over Iran’s proxy forces spread across Iraq and Syria. Not only can they not strike at Israel’s threat, but they also cannot prevent Israel from striking at the heart of the Shiite empire. This situation is known as checkmate.
In addition to this move, following Israel’s airstrike in Operation Days of Repentance on the night of October 25, 2024, Israel has forced Iran into a state known in chess as Zugzwang. In this situation, the opponent is compelled to make a move that worsens their position. In practical terms, Iran’s need to retaliate against Israel’s attack will cause it more harm than good.
Aside from the ballistic missile threat, which should not be underestimated, Israel faces no direct threat from Iran. Any Iranian attempt to strike Israel will be perceived as a casus belli and will grant Israel the legitimacy to target one—or all—of three critical Iranian assets: the symbols of the regime, the oil industry, or the nuclear weapons program. Israel’s offensive has not only weakened Iran militarily but also exposed the inferiority of the weaponry supplied by Iran’s Axis of Evil allies—China, Russia, and North Korea—when faced with Israeli technological superiority.
Historically, Two Persian Empires Have Fallen
One by one, Israel has eliminated the heads of Iran’s proxy network, including Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and senior Hezbollah commanders in Lebanon, alongside Hamas leaders Muhammad Deif, Yahya Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh, and Saleh al-Arouri. It has also targeted key Iranian Revolutionary Guard figures such as Esmail Qa’ani and Abbas Nilforoushan.
Israel is in a position where “the voice is Khamenei’s, but the hands are those of his proxies—Sinwar, Nasrallah, and their severed tentacles.” Now, all that remains is to strike at the head of the snake. Israel has already ground down Hamas’s capabilities, and if it continues its all-out war in Lebanon, it is on track to do the same to Hezbollah.
Israel is in the process of reshaping the Middle East. The primary force preventing its total dominance over Iran and its satellites is the Houthi forces in Yemen, which have imposed a military blockade on Israel and the region, exacting an economic toll. The Houthis have also deployed skilled forces toward Jordan and Syria, potentially threatening Israel from the east. Israel must leverage its aerial strategic capabilities and strike without mercy at the Houthis’ centers of power, primarily their oil industry, shipping capabilities, and missile infrastructure.
From a historical perspective, the two great Persian empires that once ruled the Middle East—the Achaemenid Empire founded by Cyrus the Great and the Sassanian Empire—were both defeated by brilliant military leaders: Alexander the Great and Caliph Umar ibn al-Khattab.
Alexander the Great vanquished Darius III, the King of Kings of the Persian Empire, by deepening the Macedonian invasion into Persian territory after several fierce battles. In the Battle of Issus (333 BCE), Darius personally led his troops against Alexander but lost, despite holding a numerical advantage (approximately 5-to-1 in favor of the Persians). After this devastating loss, Darius attempted to negotiate peace, offering Alexander 10,000 talents, control over Asia Minor, and additional Middle Eastern territories. Alexander refused.
With no choice, Darius prepared for another battle, summoning all his reserves. Despite his significant numerical advantage, he suffered another defeat at the Battle of Gaugamela (331 BCE) and fled. A few months later, he was assassinated by one of his satraps, Bessus, who hoped to gain Alexander’s favor by eliminating his rival. One province after another, the Persian Empire collapsed into Greek hands.
In today’s battle against Iran, Israel must not seek a compromise. Still, it must stand firm on the complete defeat of the Revolutionary Guards’ Iran and the destruction of its military power.
Iran Set the Stage for “King’s Removal”
Nearly a thousand years after the fall of the Achaemenid Empire, the Muslim Arab forces under Caliph Umar ibn al-Khattab and General Sa’d ibn Abi Waqqas defeated the Sassanian Persian army led by Yazdegerd III in the Battle of al-Qadisiyyah (636 CE). This victory paved the way for the conquest of Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. To this day, Iranians view this battle as a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Arabs and the dismantling of their once-great civilization. Who knows—perhaps Iran’s takeover of Arab territories in the Middle East was its long-awaited revenge…
The fall of the Sassanian Empire bears striking similarities to the domino effect unfolding in recent months. Thousands of Hamas and Hezbollah fighters are deserting the battlefield, fleeing to safer areas, blending into the civilian population, or surrendering to Israel. Iran’s fully funded armies seem to be evaporating before the eyes of the Tehran regime. Furthermore, the masses in Lebanon, Syria, and even Iran itself are crying out for relief, seeking an opportunity to shake off the chains of Iranian rule.
Even Iran’s allies in Lebanon—Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Christian politician Gebran Bassil—now feel emboldened to oppose continued Shiite dominance in Lebanon. When the lion weakens, even the foxes walk tall. Even Bashar al-Assad is distancing himself from Iranian assistance and Hezbollah’s presence on Syrian soil, recognizing that their continued presence invites devastating Israeli airstrikes and threatens his already fragile control over Syria.
Just as Darius III and Yazdegerd III were ultimately defeated, so too must Khamenei and the leaders of the Revolutionary Guards and the Iranian military be brought down. The moment Khamenei gave the green light for Hezbollah fighters, under the command of Iranian Revolutionary Guard “advisors,” to target the Israeli Prime Minister’s residence in a checkmate attempt to eliminate the king, he sealed his fate.
Just as Israel eliminated the leaders of Iran’s proxy network, it has the right—and the necessity—to target Khamenei himself. The voice is Khamenei’s, but the time has come for that voice to be silenced.
Through a calculated strategic campaign, Israel must continue weakening all of Iran’s tentacles, especially the head of the octopus, while allowing the oppressed masses under their rule to rise and overthrow the regime. This is a long, grueling, and costly struggle, with many sacrifices. But a new Middle East is already in the making.
